00:00

But my big discovery and why I really started loading up on Ethereum

But my big discovery and why I really started loading up on Ethereum

00:05

was another chart.

was another chart.

00:07

Which was a understanding

Which was a understanding

00:09

that Metcalfe's law

that Metcalfe's law

00:12

was the primary driver

was the primary driver

00:14

of all crypto markets. And in fact, almost all of the tech stocks that we've known today. Right. And once you realize that these are basically networks,

of all crypto markets. And in fact, almost all of the tech stocks that we've known today. Right. And once you realize that these are basically networks,

00:23

and once you realize that crypto,

and once you realize that crypto,

00:26

on networks where you actually own the network. So Facebook is a great network stock, and it works perfectly on a log chart, and it's an exponential.

on networks where you actually own the network. So Facebook is a great network stock, and it works perfectly on a log chart, and it's an exponential.

00:32

Does all the things as you imagine You can value it in Metcalfe's law terms,

Does all the things as you imagine You can value it in Metcalfe's law terms,

00:37

but the fundamental differences,

but the fundamental differences,

00:38

shareholders and network users are not aligned. The shareholders make the money the network users get the utility.

shareholders and network users are not aligned. The shareholders make the money the network users get the utility.

00:45

Along comes crypto, you ma marry

Along comes crypto, you ma marry

00:48

the the network

the the network

00:50

user with the owner. Okay. Now you've got network effect fixed upon network effects. It's like behavioral economics -- Right. -- manor from heaven. Religion meets Matt McCast Law. Right? It's like It's really heavy. Now I'm tribal about the thing. It's religion meets capitalism. It's basically what it is. Right? So that is incredibly powerful. So

user with the owner. Okay. Now you've got network effect fixed upon network effects. It's like behavioral economics -- Right. -- manor from heaven. Religion meets Matt McCast Law. Right? It's like It's really heavy. Now I'm tribal about the thing. It's religion meets capitalism. It's basically what it is. Right? So that is incredibly powerful. So

01:10

for

for

01:11

those

those

01:12

who

who

01:13

don't

don't

01:13

know,

know,

01:14

you

you

01:15

basically

basically

01:16

you're

you're

01:17

at

at

01:18

Goldman

Goldman

01:19

you started your own hedge fund. And then, similarly, you you retired. Correct? You retired pretty young. You retired at thirty six. But, I mean, now you're you have a company now, so you're not, you know, fully retired and kicked back. But No. I've got four all jobs I'm doing right now. So Right. But you did have a break in between. Correct? So, like, I think it was two thousand four when you when you sort of retired from the hedge fund. And it was, like, two thousand fourteen or something when you launched you know, real vision. So what was going on in between? Were you doing nothing or you were doing other projects? I just don't know. I was writing global macro investor, but that is a monthly publication.

you started your own hedge fund. And then, similarly, you you retired. Correct? You retired pretty young. You retired at thirty six. But, I mean, now you're you have a company now, so you're not, you know, fully retired and kicked back. But No. I've got four all jobs I'm doing right now. So Right. But you did have a break in between. Correct? So, like, I think it was two thousand four when you when you sort of retired from the hedge fund. And it was, like, two thousand fourteen or something when you launched you know, real vision. So what was going on in between? Were you doing nothing or you were doing other projects? I just don't know. I was writing global macro investor, but that is a monthly publication.

01:51

So I don't know why all of you guys do weekly newsletters or daily newsletters. It's hard work. So I wrote monthly. It's big. It's like it starts off at about thirty five pages a month. And then

So I don't know why all of you guys do weekly newsletters or daily newsletters. It's hard work. So I wrote monthly. It's big. It's like it starts off at about thirty five pages a month. And then

02:02

due to

due to

02:03

inflation, it gets to,

inflation, it gets to,

02:05

about a hundred and thirty pages a month now. But I write it in a weekend. So -- Wow. -- in I was living in Spain, wrote one weekend a month. Sure. I need to monitor markets and talk to people, but it was a part time job.

about a hundred and thirty pages a month now. But I write it in a weekend. So -- Wow. -- in I was living in Spain, wrote one weekend a month. Sure. I need to monitor markets and talk to people, but it was a part time job.

02:17

So really what I'd done is kind of opted out of the rat race, moves to the Mediterranean coast of Spain. I was growing fruit and vegetables in my garden and almonds and olives and all of that stuff, living the beach life in Spain,

So really what I'd done is kind of opted out of the rat race, moves to the Mediterranean coast of Spain. I was growing fruit and vegetables in my garden and almonds and olives and all of that stuff, living the beach life in Spain,

02:30

in the middle of a on the side of a mountain in the middle of National Park. Having a great life.

in the middle of a on the side of a mountain in the middle of National Park. Having a great life.

02:34

In the end,

In the end,

02:36

you must start missing intellectual capital.

you must start missing intellectual capital.

02:38

Pe the people around you most of the people, most of the year round in a beach town in Spain work in a bar or restaurant

Pe the people around you most of the people, most of the year round in a beach town in Spain work in a bar or restaurant

02:45

or they,

or they,

02:46

or they're in prop, real estate.

or they're in prop, real estate.

02:48

Which is fine,

Which is fine,

02:49

but you feel very isolated when your world is global macro.

but you feel very isolated when your world is global macro.

02:54

Totally. So so describe the moment because I think a lot of people listening to this. So so you I don't know how much you know about the podcast, but,

Totally. So so describe the moment because I think a lot of people listening to this. So so you I don't know how much you know about the podcast, but,

03:00

basically,

basically,

03:02

the podcast is usually me and Sam who who can he's not here because he's traveling. He's actually in Portugal right now. We just sort of usually spit we're both founders. We both recently sold our companies in the last two years. We started the podcast when after we sold because that's when you have a bunch of time on your hands. And, and it's usually just spit balling different kind of like business opportunities, market opportunities.

the podcast is usually me and Sam who who can he's not here because he's traveling. He's actually in Portugal right now. We just sort of usually spit we're both founders. We both recently sold our companies in the last two years. We started the podcast when after we sold because that's when you have a bunch of time on your hands. And, and it's usually just spit balling different kind of like business opportunities, market opportunities.

03:21

And so just stuff that we see that we think could work or is interesting, but we're not gonna go do it ourselves. This became our outlet to do that. And, and so you get, like, we have, like, I don't know, like, over a million downloads a month. And those p what what the people who listen, what they're doing is,

And so just stuff that we see that we think could work or is interesting, but we're not gonna go do it ourselves. This became our outlet to do that. And, and so you get, like, we have, like, I don't know, like, over a million downloads a month. And those p what what the people who listen, what they're doing is,

03:36

they typically are either, like, they wanna start a business, but they don't. They they have, like, a good paying job, and they're looking thing about making the leap. Or they they have their own business, and this is, like, they're doing this while they're, you know, doing their chores. And it's like, oh, I get to hang out with my buddies. Who are shooting shit about business because, like, you know, we talk about stuff that they wanna talk about. They just don't maybe have the friends around them that wanna talk nerd out about business all the time. And so we kind of had that same, thing where you needed that intellectual sparring

they typically are either, like, they wanna start a business, but they don't. They they have, like, a good paying job, and they're looking thing about making the leap. Or they they have their own business, and this is, like, they're doing this while they're, you know, doing their chores. And it's like, oh, I get to hang out with my buddies. Who are shooting shit about business because, like, you know, we talk about stuff that they wanna talk about. They just don't maybe have the friends around them that wanna talk nerd out about business all the time. And so we kind of had that same, thing where you needed that intellectual sparring

04:03

to, to feel good.

to, to feel good.

04:05

But the the thing you mentioned, which was like, you know, you sort of won one game. You're doing well in one game, but you decided to exit the rat race.

But the the thing you mentioned, which was like, you know, you sort of won one game. You're doing well in one game, but you decided to exit the rat race.

04:13

What was that? Did you have, like, a kinda come to Jesus moment? Or did you have, like, was that a long time coming? How did that happen?

What was that? Did you have, like, a kinda come to Jesus moment? Or did you have, like, was that a long time coming? How did that happen?

04:20

My meta narrative

My meta narrative

04:22

is the game is life itself.

is the game is life itself.

04:24

The game is not money. The game is quality of life and how you live it. So that was always my objective. So when I was

The game is not money. The game is quality of life and how you live it. So that was always my objective. So when I was

04:30

on the tube in London at five fifteen in the morning to get my get to my desk at Goldman before six,

on the tube in London at five fifteen in the morning to get my get to my desk at Goldman before six,

04:37

The reason I did it is because I knew that the next thing I wanted to do was go and live in the Mediterranean

The reason I did it is because I knew that the next thing I wanted to do was go and live in the Mediterranean

04:43

and wants to have that quality of life. You know, for me,

and wants to have that quality of life. You know, for me,

04:47

a lot of people think of money as the primary objective. I actually like houses,

a lot of people think of money as the primary objective. I actually like houses,

04:51

as you can tell, from the house behind me. Right? Because this is where I live. This is the quality of life. This is my bank. This is everything.

as you can tell, from the house behind me. Right? Because this is where I live. This is the quality of life. This is my bank. This is everything.

04:59

And so I like where I live and how I live. That's why I live in the Caymanars. That's why I lived in Spain. Beautiful places,

And so I like where I live and how I live. That's why I live in the Caymanars. That's why I lived in Spain. Beautiful places,

05:05

and I live a quality of life. So that has always been my journey.

and I live a quality of life. So that has always been my journey.

05:10

But what I want to do is I always take steps towards the endgame. I kinda live in the future always in everything that I do. So I always have a vision of my future self,

But what I want to do is I always take steps towards the endgame. I kinda live in the future always in everything that I do. So I always have a vision of my future self,

05:19

or whether that's future state of financial markets, where I think it's going, whatever it may be, I'm always well ahead.

or whether that's future state of financial markets, where I think it's going, whatever it may be, I'm always well ahead.

05:26

And so I then can look it's much easier.

And so I then can look it's much easier.

05:30

To live in the future and look back and say, how do I get here?

To live in the future and look back and say, how do I get here?

05:33

Then stand here today and go, I wanna go forward. It's kind of weird. It's a psychology thing. And so -- Right. -- I had realized that the Mediterranean was this life, and I was my ex girlfriend when I was at university

Then stand here today and go, I wanna go forward. It's kind of weird. It's a psychology thing. And so -- Right. -- I had realized that the Mediterranean was this life, and I was my ex girlfriend when I was at university

05:48

her mother lived in majorca in Spain. And I was there in majorca one point,

her mother lived in majorca in Spain. And I was there in majorca one point,

05:53

and we were on the small beach eating

and we were on the small beach eating

05:55

grilled sardines, there was this perfect Mediterranean scene. Right? Grilled sardines, somebody's making the big oil drum on the beach. Right. You've got a cold beer, some grilled sardines, and on this little mini peninsula is a bunch of pine trees and palm trees, and there's this long table of, like, thirty people, twenty five people,

grilled sardines, there was this perfect Mediterranean scene. Right? Grilled sardines, somebody's making the big oil drum on the beach. Right. You've got a cold beer, some grilled sardines, and on this little mini peninsula is a bunch of pine trees and palm trees, and there's this long table of, like, thirty people, twenty five people,

06:12

of different age groups, parents, kids, grandparents,

of different age groups, parents, kids, grandparents,

06:15

eating paya, the Spanish national dish

eating paya, the Spanish national dish

06:18

on this Sunday.

on this Sunday.

06:19

Drinking wine, laughing, I'm like, that is quality of life.

Drinking wine, laughing, I'm like, that is quality of life.

06:23

And so I kept that in my mind.

And so I kept that in my mind.

06:26

And so I kind of facilitated it to happen that I would move to Spain.

And so I kind of facilitated it to happen that I would move to Spain.

06:30

Right.

Right.

06:32

And I did it in steps as well. So I did it in the step that I was speaking to my father. I was having dinner with him, and he's like, and I I I was just chatting every few glass of wine. I was like, you know, I'd love to buy a house in Spain at some point. And he said, yeah, I've got friends selling a house in Spain.

And I did it in steps as well. So I did it in the step that I was speaking to my father. I was having dinner with him, and he's like, and I I I was just chatting every few glass of wine. I was like, you know, I'd love to buy a house in Spain at some point. And he said, yeah, I've got friends selling a house in Spain.

06:48

A random thing. So I said, sure. Well, let me know. So he sent he he this isn't the day of faxes.

A random thing. So I said, sure. Well, let me know. So he sent he he this isn't the day of faxes.

06:54

It's like nineteen ninety

It's like nineteen ninety

06:56

eight or something. He sends me a fax

eight or something. He sends me a fax

06:59

of this six bedroom house on a hillside in Spain. I'm like, that's great, dad. How the hell am I supposed to afford it? He's like, I was thirty years old. I was working at Goldman, He's like, well, I don't know how much it is.

of this six bedroom house on a hillside in Spain. I'm like, that's great, dad. How the hell am I supposed to afford it? He's like, I was thirty years old. I was working at Goldman, He's like, well, I don't know how much it is.

07:10

So he came back and said it was a hundred and fifty thousand pounds, which at the time was, like, two hundred fifty thousand US, two hundred thousand US.

So he came back and said it was a hundred and fifty thousand pounds, which at the time was, like, two hundred fifty thousand US, two hundred thousand US.

07:18

And I just had a bonus, and I thought, well, I could actually buy that in cash. And I did. Right.

And I just had a bonus, and I thought, well, I could actually buy that in cash. And I did. Right.

07:22

And it was game changing. I had a mortgage in London and everything else. It was game changing because now I'd won the entire game. Got a six bedroom house on a hillside in Spain overlooking Orange Grove, ten minutes to the beach.

And it was game changing. I had a mortgage in London and everything else. It was game changing because now I'd won the entire game. Got a six bedroom house on a hillside in Spain overlooking Orange Grove, ten minutes to the beach.

07:32

And I could lose my job

And I could lose my job

07:36

I could still have that. And I could work in a bar, and I could live there.

I could still have that. And I could work in a bar, and I could live there.

07:40

I'm done. My game of life was one. That that was the marker stone to allow me to take more risk to do the next thing. And so that's how I've always done these things.

I'm done. My game of life was one. That that was the marker stone to allow me to take more risk to do the next thing. And so that's how I've always done these things.

07:49

And how do you get that vision? So so I'm the same way I what I've noticed about myself is, like, every

And how do you get that vision? So so I'm the same way I what I've noticed about myself is, like, every

07:55

I call them, like, these chapters. So it's, like, every sort of, like, five years, it's like a new chapter. And what what I've noticed if I go look back at the kinda last three chapters, so I'm I'm thirty,

I call them, like, these chapters. So it's, like, every sort of, like, five years, it's like a new chapter. And what what I've noticed if I go look back at the kinda last three chapters, so I'm I'm thirty,

08:04

about to be thirty four. So, basically, you know, three chapters. I I've I've done three chapters now. And each time it was sort of this like fortuitous bounce where I get in touch with somebody, they show me a glimpse into this lifestyle

about to be thirty four. So, basically, you know, three chapters. I I've I've done three chapters now. And each time it was sort of this like fortuitous bounce where I get in touch with somebody, they show me a glimpse into this lifestyle

08:16

or this kind of, like, mode that they're in. And then I just can't unsee it. I'm like, why the hell am I not doing that? Right? It's your version of seeing people eat and pay a drink of wine at a thirty person table just enjoying life on the by the water, and you're like, that's the glance. That that is the glimpse I needed to do it. So is that how you also got your vision for the next for the next kind of like chapter for you. And so the next thing was not so I've been in Spain, and I realized the thing I was missing was intellectual capital. Even though my clients were the world's most famous hedge fund managers, you know, all of these super smart guys, but they weren't around me. They're all around the world.

or this kind of, like, mode that they're in. And then I just can't unsee it. I'm like, why the hell am I not doing that? Right? It's your version of seeing people eat and pay a drink of wine at a thirty person table just enjoying life on the by the water, and you're like, that's the glance. That that is the glimpse I needed to do it. So is that how you also got your vision for the next for the next kind of like chapter for you. And so the next thing was not so I've been in Spain, and I realized the thing I was missing was intellectual capital. Even though my clients were the world's most famous hedge fund managers, you know, all of these super smart guys, but they weren't around me. They're all around the world.

08:48

And

And

08:49

it was not as easy to get in touch. Twitter wasn't really around. You know, there was less ways to be social online. Podcasts didn't really exist. Right. So

it was not as easy to get in touch. Twitter wasn't really around. You know, there was less ways to be social online. Podcasts didn't really exist. Right. So

08:58

And then I think I probably discovered

And then I think I probably discovered

09:02

Tim Ferris,

Tim Ferris,

09:04

and another friend of mine Mark Hart had gone down this journey of looking at Silicon Valley and entrepreneurship.

and another friend of mine Mark Hart had gone down this journey of looking at Silicon Valley and entrepreneurship.

09:10

And that was the thing that I thought, okay. This is the next thing for me. How can I how can I take the entrepreneurial journey outside of know, setting up my own research business, which was a one man band, essentially?

And that was the thing that I thought, okay. This is the next thing for me. How can I how can I take the entrepreneurial journey outside of know, setting up my own research business, which was a one man band, essentially?

09:21

I wanted to take that entrepreneur's journey and push myself. I wanted to see what I was capable of.

I wanted to take that entrepreneur's journey and push myself. I wanted to see what I was capable of.

09:26

So that was the next that was the next thing. And get people sent. So you're at Goldman. That's a good job.

So that was the next that was the next thing. And get people sent. So you're at Goldman. That's a good job.

09:32

What what are you making by back then.

What what are you making by back then.

09:35

You know, what basically, like, what what was your kind of, like because I think for a lot of people, they're like, okay. Some people feel trapped when they're when they're making a high salary at a nice company, they feel trapped. They don't they don't take those leaps. And other people, they'll look at this and say, well, it's easy for you. You probably were making a bunch of money at the time. You know, so, yeah, you could take these leaps of faith because you had kind of a a safety net. So, but wait, wind the clock back. We're talking almost twenty years ago or something like that.

You know, what basically, like, what what was your kind of, like because I think for a lot of people, they're like, okay. Some people feel trapped when they're when they're making a high salary at a nice company, they feel trapped. They don't they don't take those leaps. And other people, they'll look at this and say, well, it's easy for you. You probably were making a bunch of money at the time. You know, so, yeah, you could take these leaps of faith because you had kind of a a safety net. So, but wait, wind the clock back. We're talking almost twenty years ago or something like that.

09:59

You know, how are you doing financially then versus, you know, at the at those two steps kinda look. I've

You know, how are you doing financially then versus, you know, at the at those two steps kinda look. I've

10:06

been really lucky, you know, I worked in the banking industry,

been really lucky, you know, I worked in the banking industry,

10:11

selling

selling

10:13

derivatives to hedge funds. Right? So these are the mega trend of finance, the mega trend of derivative, and the mega trend of hedge funds. So I, you know, I was doing pretty well, you know, thirty years old, I was earning earning more than a million dollars a year.

derivatives to hedge funds. Right? So these are the mega trend of finance, the mega trend of derivative, and the mega trend of hedge funds. So I, you know, I was doing pretty well, you know, thirty years old, I was earning earning more than a million dollars a year.

10:26

So

So

10:28

But you managed to walk away from that, which is pretty impressive. Yeah. And

But you managed to walk away from that, which is pretty impressive. Yeah. And

10:32

I I first went to a hedge fund, don't forget. So I left Goldman and went to hedge fund. So I took a risk, but I I used to argue with my boss every time he used to give me share options.

I I first went to a hedge fund, don't forget. So I left Goldman and went to hedge fund. So I took a risk, but I I used to argue with my boss every time he used to give me share options.

10:41

And,

And,

10:42

restricted stock. I'm like, thank you. It's worthless. I'd rather have cash because how dare you, you should be proud to have equity in Goldman, and that's why we can give you so much more compensation. I said it's worthless.

restricted stock. I'm like, thank you. It's worthless. I'd rather have cash because how dare you, you should be proud to have equity in Goldman, and that's why we can give you so much more compensation. I said it's worthless.

10:53

He said, why do you say that? So because it's not money I can spend.

He said, why do you say that? So because it's not money I can spend.

10:58

So he got really pissed off with me. And then when I finally quit, to go to my biggest customer and the biggest customer of Goldman's

So he got really pissed off with me. And then when I finally quit, to go to my biggest customer and the biggest customer of Goldman's

11:05

equity derivatives

equity derivatives

11:07

equity desk,

equity desk,

11:09

e entire equity floor in Europe,

e entire equity floor in Europe,

11:11

GLG partners.

GLG partners.

11:13

He then called me into his office and goes, Ralph, you were dead right. It was worthless.

He then called me into his office and goes, Ralph, you were dead right. It was worthless.

11:18

He said, so I lost all.

He said, so I lost all.

11:20

I managed to cash in some of it, but I lost

I managed to cash in some of it, but I lost

11:23

millions of dollars to make that move. But I wanted to make that move because I wanted to see whether I could if I could run money myself and be a macro investor because it was another chapter that I wanted to pursue for my own goals.

millions of dollars to make that move. But I wanted to make that move because I wanted to see whether I could if I could run money myself and be a macro investor because it was another chapter that I wanted to pursue for my own goals.

11:36

And then let's kinda fast forward till today. So you came on my radar.

And then let's kinda fast forward till today. So you came on my radar.

11:41

I think had seen real vision a few times, but I hadn't, I'm not from the finance world. I'm from the Silicon Valley tech world. And, you know, so we all kinda have our, like, media sources that we learn from based on whatever industry you care about. Right? And, so I had seen it, but I hadn't really paid too much attention.

I think had seen real vision a few times, but I hadn't, I'm not from the finance world. I'm from the Silicon Valley tech world. And, you know, so we all kinda have our, like, media sources that we learn from based on whatever industry you care about. Right? And, so I had seen it, but I hadn't really paid too much attention.

11:56

But I saw you started talking about crypto, and this was,

But I saw you started talking about crypto, and this was,

11:59

you I didn't realize that you had actually started talking about crypto back in, I don't know, twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen. And I went back and I read your old kind of like memos and the, you know, stuff that you have, you know, put up screenshots about. So, you know, like you said, ahead of the curve, and you have the receipts to prove it.

you I didn't realize that you had actually started talking about crypto back in, I don't know, twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen. And I went back and I read your old kind of like memos and the, you know, stuff that you have, you know, put up screenshots about. So, you know, like you said, ahead of the curve, and you have the receipts to prove it.

12:16

But I think it was twenty nineteen or twenty twenty where you started becoming very vocal. And then you made the big splash where you were like, I've moved

But I think it was twenty nineteen or twenty twenty where you started becoming very vocal. And then you made the big splash where you were like, I've moved

12:22

some ridiculous part of your liquid net worth. I think it was I think you might have said fifty percent at one point. I thought that you heard heard you say ninety percent into crypto. Yeah.

some ridiculous part of your liquid net worth. I think it was I think you might have said fifty percent at one point. I thought that you heard heard you say ninety percent into crypto. Yeah.

12:31

Hundred percent into crypto.

Hundred percent into crypto.

12:33

And,

And,

12:34

so that caught my attention and the attention of a bunch of other people. And so, you know, I know you've talked about this before, but this is a new audience. So give you've kind of the origin story of how the mind virus of crypto kind of like, what were the steps where you went from, like, curious to convinced? What what was that journey life for you where you put in ninety percent hundred percent or something. My job is to live in the future. So I had gone I I had lived through the financial crisis and predicted it.

so that caught my attention and the attention of a bunch of other people. And so, you know, I know you've talked about this before, but this is a new audience. So give you've kind of the origin story of how the mind virus of crypto kind of like, what were the steps where you went from, like, curious to convinced? What what was that journey life for you where you put in ninety percent hundred percent or something. My job is to live in the future. So I had gone I I had lived through the financial crisis and predicted it.

12:58

I had also lived through the European crisis and predicted it and had been in Europe and had to buy a generator and food.

I had also lived through the European crisis and predicted it and had been in Europe and had to buy a generator and food.

13:07

And get cash out of the bank and keep it at home. Right? That's how close we were in Spain to losing our entire banking system.

And get cash out of the bank and keep it at home. Right? That's how close we were in Spain to losing our entire banking system.

13:15

And as a macro guy, I knew the issue was leverage.

And as a macro guy, I knew the issue was leverage.

13:19

And leverage had meant that we had a unique problem, which was

And leverage had meant that we had a unique problem, which was

13:23

There's a layer of collateral,

There's a layer of collateral,

13:25

and all of this debt is against the collateral.

and all of this debt is against the collateral.

13:29

And usually, you've got, like, thirty claims on the same piece of collateral. In fact, average US treasury has thirty two claims on it or it did dent may have more now.

And usually, you've got, like, thirty claims on the same piece of collateral. In fact, average US treasury has thirty two claims on it or it did dent may have more now.

13:37

So, therefore, who owns what in an unraveling,

So, therefore, who owns what in an unraveling,

13:40

you know, who's gonna get screwed?

you know, who's gonna get screwed?

13:43

And the the the the leverage was, you're talking about

And the the the the leverage was, you're talking about

13:47

government or corporate or where where did you see this stockpile of leverage? I look at total leverage. Financial system leverage, government leverage,

government or corporate or where where did you see this stockpile of leverage? I look at total leverage. Financial system leverage, government leverage,

13:56

household leverage, and private sector leverage.

household leverage, and private sector leverage.

13:59

Right? So we're at four hundred and eighty percent of GDP now, whatever stupid number is. Right? It's ridiculous.

Right? So we're at four hundred and eighty percent of GDP now, whatever stupid number is. Right? It's ridiculous.

14:04

But the problem is is that's a lot of claims on the collateral.

But the problem is is that's a lot of claims on the collateral.

14:07

Mhmm. So because not everything is collateral in the system, only something's collateral. Anyway, so when Lehman went bust, right, everyone's scrambling to find who owns what. And, you know, that that happens all the time.

Mhmm. So because not everything is collateral in the system, only something's collateral. Anyway, so when Lehman went bust, right, everyone's scrambling to find who owns what. And, you know, that that happens all the time.

14:18

So I started trying to start the world's safest bank with a bunch of family offices.

So I started trying to start the world's safest bank with a bunch of family offices.

14:23

I thought, you know, we could say a bank that doesn't use leverage. So then people can put assets there, their savings there, and realize they're safe. Because it wasn't safe. People in Cyprus had all of their money taken out by the government.

I thought, you know, we could say a bank that doesn't use leverage. So then people can put assets there, their savings there, and realize they're safe. Because it wasn't safe. People in Cyprus had all of their money taken out by the government.

14:35

So I'm like, okay. I need to do something about this, and I can do something about it. So I started that journey, and a friend of mine called Emil Woods who was a subscriber to global macro investor,

So I'm like, okay. I need to do something about this, and I can do something about it. So I started that journey, and a friend of mine called Emil Woods who was a subscriber to global macro investor,

14:45

who was running a hedge fund at the time, the next Goldman guy, he said, you need to look at Bitcoin.

who was running a hedge fund at the time, the next Goldman guy, he said, you need to look at Bitcoin.

14:49

And I've read a bit about Bitcoin. It's probably two thousand twelve.

And I've read a bit about Bitcoin. It's probably two thousand twelve.

14:53

And I

And I

14:55

wrote the first macro

wrote the first macro

14:57

piece on Bitcoin, which is, I think, the thing you referred to, which is two thousand thirteen. No. It's just like, I saw it and thought, okay. So we've got two things here. One is this asset, Bitcoin,

piece on Bitcoin, which is, I think, the thing you referred to, which is two thousand thirteen. No. It's just like, I saw it and thought, okay. So we've got two things here. One is this asset, Bitcoin,

15:08

and that's a scarce asset in the digital world. So that's probably interesting. And secondly, we've got blockchain, which is a recorded ownership of everything. Okay. Well, that solves the entire financial system, and this could be something useful for the financial system in itself as a new version of gold. So I backed out that the fair value of Bitcoin with gold at thirteen hundred using the kind of supply, you know, stock to flow ratio done badly. I'm, you know, I'm no you know, statistician

and that's a scarce asset in the digital world. So that's probably interesting. And secondly, we've got blockchain, which is a recorded ownership of everything. Okay. Well, that solves the entire financial system, and this could be something useful for the financial system in itself as a new version of gold. So I backed out that the fair value of Bitcoin with gold at thirteen hundred using the kind of supply, you know, stock to flow ratio done badly. I'm, you know, I'm no you know, statistician

15:32

or,

or,

15:33

column metrics expert, but I colored back to that. So it's probably worth a million bucks. And then How I like to look at things is, okay, what what's the price now? Two hundred dollars? Let's assume probably rightly that Raul is a totally idiot. So let's assume he's wrong by ninety percent. So it's worth a hundred thousand dollars, and it's at two hundred dollars. That is the best single bet I've ever seen in my entire life. So I bought it. And I wrote about it, and I held it all the way through till. And when you say you bought it, that's like, like, the first time I bought Bitcoin, I bought, like, I don't know, a thousand dollars of Bitcoin. Right? So I bought it means what, like, you bought a tiny bit, you bought a medium amount, or you went, like, you put a significant stake for yourself into it. A decent a decent enough amount.

column metrics expert, but I colored back to that. So it's probably worth a million bucks. And then How I like to look at things is, okay, what what's the price now? Two hundred dollars? Let's assume probably rightly that Raul is a totally idiot. So let's assume he's wrong by ninety percent. So it's worth a hundred thousand dollars, and it's at two hundred dollars. That is the best single bet I've ever seen in my entire life. So I bought it. And I wrote about it, and I held it all the way through till. And when you say you bought it, that's like, like, the first time I bought Bitcoin, I bought, like, I don't know, a thousand dollars of Bitcoin. Right? So I bought it means what, like, you bought a tiny bit, you bought a medium amount, or you went, like, you put a significant stake for yourself into it. A decent a decent enough amount.

16:16

And I sold it after a ten x.

And I sold it after a ten x.

16:18

So I've done well from it.

So I've done well from it.

16:20

Sadly, I got divorced in the process, so I halved that. So there was my tax that I don't pay in the Cayman Island.

Sadly, I got divorced in the process, so I halved that. So there was my tax that I don't pay in the Cayman Island.

16:26

I I chose a voluntary fifty percent tax.

I I chose a voluntary fifty percent tax.

16:30

So, you know, it wasn't a life changing bet, but it was a it was a good bet. Now had I held it on to to twenty thousand when it peaked? Yeah. It would have been life changing. So, okay. So I've been in it. I got out. I was nervous about all of these four king wars and everything going on. I'm like, don't understand this. Let's wait and see. And then I had talked about it a lot, analyzed it, been involved in it, but hadn't been investing it again until two thousand and nineteen, to stick my toes in again because the the mark I've been selling off, I was starting to get comfortable that, yes, that we got a recession coming. This is gonna be a useful tool. And then twenty twenty comes along

So, you know, it wasn't a life changing bet, but it was a it was a good bet. Now had I held it on to to twenty thousand when it peaked? Yeah. It would have been life changing. So, okay. So I've been in it. I got out. I was nervous about all of these four king wars and everything going on. I'm like, don't understand this. Let's wait and see. And then I had talked about it a lot, analyzed it, been involved in it, but hadn't been investing it again until two thousand and nineteen, to stick my toes in again because the the mark I've been selling off, I was starting to get comfortable that, yes, that we got a recession coming. This is gonna be a useful tool. And then twenty twenty comes along

17:06

And I was already positioned for a recession,

And I was already positioned for a recession,

17:09

but, you know, this opportunity was like, okay, if the central banks are gonna print like crazy, then that's the opportunity. So I bought a lot of Bitcoin. At that point, I was long bonds,

but, you know, this opportunity was like, okay, if the central banks are gonna print like crazy, then that's the opportunity. So I bought a lot of Bitcoin. At that point, I was long bonds,

17:20

gold

gold

17:22

dollars, bitcoin.

dollars, bitcoin.

17:23

And then over time, I started charting Bitcoin versus other assets.

And then over time, I started charting Bitcoin versus other assets.

17:28

And I realized its dominance in performance was so extreme.

And I realized its dominance in performance was so extreme.

17:32

That it made no sense to own other assets, even with the fact that Bitcoin can be very volatile and have periods like now or it's down fifty percent. It's like it makes no sense to own anything else. Now I probably will take other bets here and there.

That it made no sense to own other assets, even with the fact that Bitcoin can be very volatile and have periods like now or it's down fifty percent. It's like it makes no sense to own anything else. Now I probably will take other bets here and there.

17:46

But I think my core strategic so I was Bitcoin first Then I started doing the work. I was on Twitter a lot,

But I think my core strategic so I was Bitcoin first Then I started doing the work. I was on Twitter a lot,

17:53

and

and

17:54

people, if I were to ask anything about Ethereum, people would pile on to me, That makes me wanna know more. So I start digging in. Has the opposite reaction.

people, if I were to ask anything about Ethereum, people would pile on to me, That makes me wanna know more. So I start digging in. Has the opposite reaction.

18:02

Like, I knew what about Ethereum and, you know, but I started properly digging in. And then I thought, you know, this is really bloody interesting. The chart looks incredible. The chart versus Bitcoin looks incredible.

Like, I knew what about Ethereum and, you know, but I started properly digging in. And then I thought, you know, this is really bloody interesting. The chart looks incredible. The chart versus Bitcoin looks incredible.

18:13

This makes sense to me So,

This makes sense to me So,

18:16

I started

I started

18:18

switching,

switching,

18:20

into Ethereum.

into Ethereum.

18:21

And when you say the chart looks incredible. So tell me what that means. So I've,

And when you say the chart looks incredible. So tell me what that means. So I've,

18:25

like I said, come from the tech world. We look at charts all the time, but they're always like users, revenue,

like I said, come from the tech world. We look at charts all the time, but they're always like users, revenue,

18:32

things that sort of, like, are not,

things that sort of, like, are not,

18:35

based on spec or, you know, any kind of, like, speculation or, or, humanized.

based on spec or, you know, any kind of, like, speculation or, or, humanized.

18:39

Human emotion. Exactly.

Human emotion. Exactly.

18:42

So, you know, charts don't lie or, you know, they they they they do if you but unless unless you know what you're looking at. So

So, you know, charts don't lie or, you know, they they they they do if you but unless unless you know what you're looking at. So

18:47

When you talk about charts, I've seen, you know, I see people like do this all the time on Twitter where they're like, you know, it's voodoo magic. They see a chart, then they draw this, like, crazy shape

When you talk about charts, I've seen, you know, I see people like do this all the time on Twitter where they're like, you know, it's voodoo magic. They see a chart, then they draw this, like, crazy shape

18:55

clearly this is doing a reverse cyclone pattern, and it's gonna go all the way up. And so are you one of those guys where you actually do the technical analysis and you say, the price chart is what I'm looking at or are you looking at other charts?

clearly this is doing a reverse cyclone pattern, and it's gonna go all the way up. And so are you one of those guys where you actually do the technical analysis and you say, the price chart is what I'm looking at or are you looking at other charts?

19:06

Both. So, and I'll come on to that. So price chart, I think, is the best guide

Both. So, and I'll come on to that. So price chart, I think, is the best guide

19:12

of

of

19:13

What the asset is doing, what its trend is, how it how people are perceiving it, and where it is versus what you might perceive as fair value. So -- Okay. -- you know, you you notice certain characteristics like crypto tends to be exponential in price. So you put it on the logarithmic chart. It starts to make sense. You know, you look at things like copper and lumber, they tend to be mean reverting assets because you they get met by excess supply with high high prices lead to excess supply. So right now, with oil at a hundred bucks, everybody wants to make as much oil as possible. So the price comes down over time. Doesn't happen with crypto because you can't. Right. You need to understand the structure of markets where the sentiment is. Is it overly bearish? Like, a day like today, it got overly bearish.

What the asset is doing, what its trend is, how it how people are perceiving it, and where it is versus what you might perceive as fair value. So -- Okay. -- you know, you you notice certain characteristics like crypto tends to be exponential in price. So you put it on the logarithmic chart. It starts to make sense. You know, you look at things like copper and lumber, they tend to be mean reverting assets because you they get met by excess supply with high high prices lead to excess supply. So right now, with oil at a hundred bucks, everybody wants to make as much oil as possible. So the price comes down over time. Doesn't happen with crypto because you can't. Right. You need to understand the structure of markets where the sentiment is. Is it overly bearish? Like, a day like today, it got overly bearish.

19:54

And so suddenly you start to see a reversal. So these kind of things are interesting. But my big discovery and why I really started loading up on Ethereum

And so suddenly you start to see a reversal. So these kind of things are interesting. But my big discovery and why I really started loading up on Ethereum

20:03

was another chart,

was another chart,

20:05

which was a

which was a

20:07

understanding

understanding

20:08

that Metcalfe's law

that Metcalfe's law

20:10

was the primary driver

was the primary driver

20:12

of all crypto markets. And in fact, almost all of the tech stocks that we've known today. Right. And once you realize that these are basically networks,

of all crypto markets. And in fact, almost all of the tech stocks that we've known today. Right. And once you realize that these are basically networks,

20:21

and once you realize that crypto

and once you realize that crypto

20:24

on networks where you actually own the network. So Facebook is a great network stock, and it works perfectly on a log chart, and it's an exponential. Does all the things as you imagine? You can value it in Metcalfe's law terms.

on networks where you actually own the network. So Facebook is a great network stock, and it works perfectly on a log chart, and it's an exponential. Does all the things as you imagine? You can value it in Metcalfe's law terms.

20:35

The fundamental differences,

The fundamental differences,

20:37

shareholders and network users are not aligned. The shareholders make the money, the network users get the utility.

shareholders and network users are not aligned. The shareholders make the money, the network users get the utility.

20:43

Along comes crypto,

Along comes crypto,

20:45

you ma marry

you ma marry

20:47

the the network

the the network

20:48

user with the owner. Okay. Now you've got network effect fix upon network effects. This is like behavioral economics -- Right. -- manor from heaven. Religion meets Matt McCast Law. Right? It's like It's really heavy. Now I'm tribal about the thing. It's religion meets capitalism. It's basically what it is. Right? So that is incredibly powerful.

user with the owner. Okay. Now you've got network effect fix upon network effects. This is like behavioral economics -- Right. -- manor from heaven. Religion meets Matt McCast Law. Right? It's like It's really heavy. Now I'm tribal about the thing. It's religion meets capitalism. It's basically what it is. Right? So that is incredibly powerful.

21:08

So I start looking at the fact that Bitcoin and Ethereum charts just at different points when they at the same point in the dobs cycle were remarkably similar.

So I start looking at the fact that Bitcoin and Ethereum charts just at different points when they at the same point in the dobs cycle were remarkably similar.

21:18

And then it dawned on me as they're all the bloody same thing. They're all about adoption.

And then it dawned on me as they're all the bloody same thing. They're all about adoption.

21:23

So then so so if you look at it and if you're honest with yourself,

So then so so if you look at it and if you're honest with yourself,

21:27

Ethereum. If you think about Metcalf's law, it's about the number of users

Ethereum. If you think about Metcalf's law, it's about the number of users

21:31

and then the kind of connections between the users and the applications built to create those connections.

and then the kind of connections between the users and the applications built to create those connections.

21:37

Well, Bitcoin's kind of a one-sided

Well, Bitcoin's kind of a one-sided

21:39

one, which is a bunch of people own it as a store of value.

one, which is a bunch of people own it as a store of value.

21:42

Like gold, nothing wrong with that.

Like gold, nothing wrong with that.

21:44

But there's not many applications built in it. When you look at the Ethereum, it's like, holy shit.

But there's not many applications built in it. When you look at the Ethereum, it's like, holy shit.

21:49

I mean, this is like the internet.

I mean, this is like the internet.

21:51

Right. That moment is like, okay. This is far superior a bet.

Right. That moment is like, okay. This is far superior a bet.

21:57

And so that's why I took that bet. And then I eventually shifted

And so that's why I took that bet. And then I eventually shifted

22:02

majority into Ethereum and then took other bets in the space to express macro views.

majority into Ethereum and then took other bets in the space to express macro views.

22:08

Yeah.

Yeah.

22:08

It's funny. I I I have, one tenth of the intelligence of you, but I did the exact same pattern. So, you know, heard about it in twenty, twenty thirteen, bought a little bit dabbled. Sold during when I, you know, I went I went to a wedding and my aunt was telling me about how great Bitcoin and Ethereum. I was like, oh, that's probably a bubble twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. Sold for a nice profit was patting myself on the back. You know, in retrospect, worst trade I ever made. Should I just held everything.

It's funny. I I I have, one tenth of the intelligence of you, but I did the exact same pattern. So, you know, heard about it in twenty, twenty thirteen, bought a little bit dabbled. Sold during when I, you know, I went I went to a wedding and my aunt was telling me about how great Bitcoin and Ethereum. I was like, oh, that's probably a bubble twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. Sold for a nice profit was patting myself on the back. You know, in retrospect, worst trade I ever made. Should I just held everything.

22:32

You know, bought started buying back in

You know, bought started buying back in

22:35

in twenty

in twenty

22:36

twenty, twenty nineteen or twenty twenty, I kind of announced that I've, I had moved twenty five percent of all my liquid net worth into the thing, but that was right before, you know, another another run up. And so that became quickly fifty, sixty percent.

twenty, twenty nineteen or twenty twenty, I kind of announced that I've, I had moved twenty five percent of all my liquid net worth into the thing, but that was right before, you know, another another run up. And so that became quickly fifty, sixty percent.

22:48

And,

And,

22:48

and, you know, peers, and some people are telling you, you're crazy. I'm sure you had the same. And same thing, you know, why are you betting on this? Are you just kinda speculating? And I said, no. Like, basically, I spent my whole career studying the power of network effects. Right? I'm trying to build marketplaces and social networks. In Silicon Valley because I know that a network effect is the most powerful

and, you know, peers, and some people are telling you, you're crazy. I'm sure you had the same. And same thing, you know, why are you betting on this? Are you just kinda speculating? And I said, no. Like, basically, I spent my whole career studying the power of network effects. Right? I'm trying to build marketplaces and social networks. In Silicon Valley because I know that a network effect is the most powerful

23:06

force imaginable.

force imaginable.

23:08

And, and then I see this chart this adoption chart of this new money network. I said, well, if the if the if the social network was worth x, and the information network was worth y, And then the, you know, the merchant network, which is, like, you know, basically Amazon.

And, and then I see this chart this adoption chart of this new money network. I said, well, if the if the if the social network was worth x, and the information network was worth y, And then the, you know, the merchant network, which is, like, you know, basically Amazon.

23:22

It was worth, you know, Z. Then, then this thing is gonna be the money network is gonna be worth a lot. I could tell you And so I was, I didn't know much more than that, but I just knew if you can bet early in a in a network effect that's still going through, it's kind of like, you know, adoption curve

It was worth, you know, Z. Then, then this thing is gonna be the money network is gonna be worth a lot. I could tell you And so I was, I didn't know much more than that, but I just knew if you can bet early in a in a network effect that's still going through, it's kind of like, you know, adoption curve

23:38

you know, you'll do pretty well. And so that was kinda my my my bet,

you know, you'll do pretty well. And so that was kinda my my my bet,

23:43

coming from a, you know, sort of a different different take, but ended up at sort of the same conclusion. And I remember being impressed that you were talking about network effects because I didn't really see a lot of people in kind of traditional finance talking about that at all. I mean, I I they're missing the point. You know? Really one of the first peoples to really start saying,

coming from a, you know, sort of a different different take, but ended up at sort of the same conclusion. And I remember being impressed that you were talking about network effects because I didn't really see a lot of people in kind of traditional finance talking about that at all. I mean, I I they're missing the point. You know? Really one of the first peoples to really start saying,

24:00

unless you understand network effects, you don't understand what this is at all. It was an undefined on waveforms.

unless you understand network effects, you don't understand what this is at all. It was an undefined on waveforms.

24:05

Because people people listening maybe don't know network. So so to to find it, network effects just describes this phenomenon where

Because people people listening maybe don't know network. So so to to find it, network effects just describes this phenomenon where

24:12

let's just take, you know, a language. If I'm the only person who speaks English, English is not very useful. Same thing with a telephone system. If I'm the only person with a telephone, it's not that useful. But now another person gets a telephone or learns English, well, English just got more valuable.

let's just take, you know, a language. If I'm the only person who speaks English, English is not very useful. Same thing with a telephone system. If I'm the only person with a telephone, it's not that useful. But now another person gets a telephone or learns English, well, English just got more valuable.

24:24

And then the more people that learn English, the more valuable English is as a language. And so it's described as phenomenon that every participant that joins the network makes the whole network more valuable.

And then the more people that learn English, the more valuable English is as a language. And so it's described as phenomenon that every participant that joins the network makes the whole network more valuable.

24:35

So it's like the opposite of like a popular night club where everybody who joins makes the thing sort of, you know, diminishes the popularity over time. Network effects typically describe that they it gets more valuable, add it square, basically, as an exponential,

So it's like the opposite of like a popular night club where everybody who joins makes the thing sort of, you know, diminishes the popularity over time. Network effects typically describe that they it gets more valuable, add it square, basically, as an exponential,

24:50

not linear.

not linear.

24:51

And then if you think about it in other terms, it's let say let's say let's look at web three as a network

And then if you think about it in other terms, it's let say let's say let's look at web three as a network

24:56

and a network of engineers,

and a network of engineers,

24:58

engineering talent. Right? This is where where it gets really interesting. Why is it exponential?

engineering talent. Right? This is where where it gets really interesting. Why is it exponential?

25:03

Is because there are parts

Is because there are parts

25:05

when everybody's trying to hire web three talent. Right? We are -- Right. -- every single person I know is. Right? And the actual pool of people are capable of doing it is probably, like, a thousand.

when everybody's trying to hire web three talent. Right? We are -- Right. -- every single person I know is. Right? And the actual pool of people are capable of doing it is probably, like, a thousand.

25:15

Right. And there are multi millionaires who don't want jobs. But that that's the point. Is there salaries,

Right. And there are multi millionaires who don't want jobs. But that that's the point. Is there salaries,

25:22

and the demand for them is exponential. The demand for the network of those guys becomes exponential. Over time, There'll be millions of trained people, and it becomes the network effects.

and the demand for them is exponential. The demand for the network of those guys becomes exponential. Over time, There'll be millions of trained people, and it becomes the network effects.

25:33

The overall space is very valuable,

The overall space is very valuable,

25:35

but the opportunity that ramp

but the opportunity that ramp

25:38

That's the single most important interesting part of network effects.

That's the single most important interesting part of network effects.

25:42

Right. And the fact that you can own a share of the network

Right. And the fact that you can own a share of the network

25:46

So even when the network flattens out and is now worth, I think, two hundred trillion dollars for the digital asset space, it's currently two trillion dollars. That's a hundred x in market cap.

So even when the network flattens out and is now worth, I think, two hundred trillion dollars for the digital asset space, it's currently two trillion dollars. That's a hundred x in market cap.

25:57

That's huge. We've never had anything like this before. Right. Like, when the when the first when the information network was getting built out, which is just the internet, And it was pretty clear, like, slowly but surely people were adopting. They were getting online. And then stuff was getting built, stuff to do. And then everybody who was online made made being online better because you could communicate with them or they might write a blog or whatever. The whole internet was getting better. The more people that joined. Right? That was a network effect, but you couldn't invest in the internet. Like, you couldn't just invest generically

That's huge. We've never had anything like this before. Right. Like, when the when the first when the information network was getting built out, which is just the internet, And it was pretty clear, like, slowly but surely people were adopting. They were getting online. And then stuff was getting built, stuff to do. And then everybody who was online made made being online better because you could communicate with them or they might write a blog or whatever. The whole internet was getting better. The more people that joined. Right? That was a network effect, but you couldn't invest in the internet. Like, you couldn't just invest generically

26:23

the internet. And so you had to pick, you know, certain platforms. And even then, how how do you become an let's say you believed in Amazon or eBay or whatever,

the internet. And so you had to pick, you know, certain platforms. And even then, how how do you become an let's say you believed in Amazon or eBay or whatever,

26:31

you're only getting a slice of the total internet. And even then, they don't want, you know, the average person could not invest.

you're only getting a slice of the total internet. And even then, they don't want, you know, the average person could not invest.

26:37

And that, to me, it feels like NFTs right now.

And that, to me, it feels like NFTs right now.

26:41

We wanna all get involved in NFTs.

We wanna all get involved in NFTs.

26:44

You have no idea what's gonna win.

You have no idea what's gonna win.

26:47

I mean, I mean, you don't have the ability to go on every discord. So it's bandwidth constrained. We all are in this space. We know it's huge. We all know it's huge. We also know it's a bubble also know tons of this is going to zero.

I mean, I mean, you don't have the ability to go on every discord. So it's bandwidth constrained. We all are in this space. We know it's huge. We all know it's huge. We also know it's a bubble also know tons of this is going to zero.

27:01

That's what's

That's what's

27:02

interesting.

interesting.

27:03

Only ETH gives you the gives you the action of of entities. That's the kind of you know, that that kinda makes sense. Like, owning Oracle did a pretty good job of capturing the internet.

Only ETH gives you the gives you the action of of entities. That's the kind of you know, that that kinda makes sense. Like, owning Oracle did a pretty good job of capturing the internet.

27:12

Right.

Right.

27:13

And so you've been now kinda following this. And so

And so you've been now kinda following this. And so

27:17

What what what is what is a viewpoint you had about crypto that you have changed your mind on or you've you what you believe before now you realize is sort of wrong and you you think about it in different ways or any has there been anything as this kind of, you know, it's kind of like this rapidly evolving thing. You're sort of like defogging

What what what is what is a viewpoint you had about crypto that you have changed your mind on or you've you what you believe before now you realize is sort of wrong and you you think about it in different ways or any has there been anything as this kind of, you know, it's kind of like this rapidly evolving thing. You're sort of like defogging

27:32

this, like, brand new world. You know, so, you know, maybe some mental pivot picture or some mental framework you had before

this, like, brand new world. You know, so, you know, maybe some mental pivot picture or some mental framework you had before

27:39

hasn't really held up and maybe something different has happened. Can you think of an example of that?

hasn't really held up and maybe something different has happened. Can you think of an example of that?

27:44

Well, my views on Bitcoin changed,

Well, my views on Bitcoin changed,

27:47

significantly. I don't think, you know, no less of it is an asset, but I thought about it in network terms and the community, and I thought the community is not attracting new people. And the job of a network is to attract new participants And if the network was actively rejecting people, I thought it's gonna underperform,

significantly. I don't think, you know, no less of it is an asset, but I thought about it in network terms and the community, and I thought the community is not attracting new people. And the job of a network is to attract new participants And if the network was actively rejecting people, I thought it's gonna underperform,

28:03

which was surprising to me because I was very bullish on Bitcoin first because I thought, look, it's gonna have a larger place. And what's happened is almost immediately,

which was surprising to me because I was very bullish on Bitcoin first because I thought, look, it's gonna have a larger place. And what's happened is almost immediately,

28:12

and it made me change my mind

and it made me change my mind

28:14

is the institution started going, well, I actually don't like this space.

is the institution started going, well, I actually don't like this space.

28:18

And they started buying Eve.

And they started buying Eve.

28:20

And that was a so that's that's new. I haven't really heard that. So tell me about because you're connected to all these folks. Right? Like, you know -- Yeah. They just -- hedge fund guys, CIOs, whatever. You know a bunch of different people in that world.

And that was a so that's that's new. I haven't really heard that. So tell me about because you're connected to all these folks. Right? Like, you know -- Yeah. They just -- hedge fund guys, CIOs, whatever. You know a bunch of different people in that world.

28:31

Own an asset where everyone shouting have fun stay poor at each other and putting laser eyes. Right? Makes them look fucking stupid.

Own an asset where everyone shouting have fun stay poor at each other and putting laser eyes. Right? Makes them look fucking stupid.

28:38

And irresponsible with their money. Well, ETH feels like it's a technology play. Yes. It's amusing because everyone's saying GM to each other and all of this stuff, but it's not at war.

And irresponsible with their money. Well, ETH feels like it's a technology play. Yes. It's amusing because everyone's saying GM to each other and all of this stuff, but it's not at war.

28:48

Well, Bitcoin was at war with every other network because, you know, that's what networks do. You know, religions go to war with each other for the same reason. Right? They're exactly the same principles.

Well, Bitcoin was at war with every other network because, you know, that's what networks do. You know, religions go to war with each other for the same reason. Right? They're exactly the same principles.

28:58

So, you know, it's the same reason Russia and NATO, it's that they're all the same. They're all networks fighting each other for the robustness of their own network. I get it. So that But that whole process of seeing institutions getting turned off by it was a was a big deal to me. I just thought, yeah, I don't like this either. So that was one thing

So, you know, it's the same reason Russia and NATO, it's that they're all the same. They're all networks fighting each other for the robustness of their own network. I get it. So that But that whole process of seeing institutions getting turned off by it was a was a big deal to me. I just thought, yeah, I don't like this either. So that was one thing

29:18

I'm trying to think.

I'm trying to think.

29:20

One point,

One point,

29:21

you've seen a lot of news about institutions buying Bitcoin, whether it's Tesla or microstrategy or Square or, you know, some, like, you know, random insurance company buys a hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. So we've kind of heard those We hear less of that with ETH. Is it just going on under the radar? Is it coming? What what's your sense of that? Because I haven't I I'm in this space and I haven't heard a ton. It's happening

you've seen a lot of news about institutions buying Bitcoin, whether it's Tesla or microstrategy or Square or, you know, some, like, you know, random insurance company buys a hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. So we've kind of heard those We hear less of that with ETH. Is it just going on under the radar? Is it coming? What what's your sense of that? Because I haven't I I'm in this space and I haven't heard a ton. It's happening

29:44

blow the radar because people keep coming to me saying when's this wall of money? I'm like, it doesn't come as a tidal wave.

blow the radar because people keep coming to me saying when's this wall of money? I'm like, it doesn't come as a tidal wave.

29:51

It comes as a flow.

It comes as a flow.

29:53

Right? You don't steer it until you look back and go, wow.

Right? You don't steer it until you look back and go, wow.

29:56

So I mean, I, literally, every other day, I'm speaking to the world's largest financial institutions who put me in front of their investment committees and taught them through crypto and how to invest. And the the narrative change, it really surprised me It was always Bitcoin,

So I mean, I, literally, every other day, I'm speaking to the world's largest financial institutions who put me in front of their investment committees and taught them through crypto and how to invest. And the the narrative change, it really surprised me It was always Bitcoin,

30:10

you know, can we put Bitcoin on our balance sheet? How should we invest in Bitcoin? What's the diversification?

you know, can we put Bitcoin on our balance sheet? How should we invest in Bitcoin? What's the diversification?

30:14

Move very quick to

Move very quick to

30:16

look, Ethereum feels like it's a technology play that makes sense with the applications. We can't we're interested in DFI, etcetera.

look, Ethereum feels like it's a technology play that makes sense with the applications. We can't we're interested in DFI, etcetera.

30:23

Then it very quickly became

Then it very quickly became

30:25

Oh, shit. Well, how do we get involved in web three?

Oh, shit. Well, how do we get involved in web three?

30:28

So it moved very fast,

So it moved very fast,

30:30

which is why in the NVC got most of the money.

which is why in the NVC got most of the money.

30:34

Because

Because

30:35

they saw the broader opportunity.

they saw the broader opportunity.

30:37

They all came through the the twenty twenty lens of Bitcoin is the asset and, you know, the the Michael Saler route and even me, you know, in the earlier part of twenty twenty, a lot of people came in that. And then, like all of us, they kinda go, oh, wow. Okay. This is much bigger.

They all came through the the twenty twenty lens of Bitcoin is the asset and, you know, the the Michael Saler route and even me, you know, in the earlier part of twenty twenty, a lot of people came in that. And then, like all of us, they kinda go, oh, wow. Okay. This is much bigger.

30:52

So, you know, I've started a fund of hedge funds,

So, you know, I've started a fund of hedge funds,

30:55

which is investing in crypto hedge funds,

which is investing in crypto hedge funds,

30:59

to allow institutions another way into the market because they don't really wanna buy just ETH Bitcoin. They want exposure to this two trillion dollar asset class is gonna go to two hundred trillion over the next

to allow institutions another way into the market because they don't really wanna buy just ETH Bitcoin. They want exposure to this two trillion dollar asset class is gonna go to two hundred trillion over the next

31:09

ten, twelve, fifteen years, whatever the number is. So hedge funds are pretty good for that because their their job is to manage the exposure and and to capture the

ten, twelve, fifteen years, whatever the number is. So hedge funds are pretty good for that because their their job is to manage the exposure and and to capture the

31:18

to capture this big move. So, you know, that's another way that it's coming in that people don't see.

to capture this big move. So, you know, that's another way that it's coming in that people don't see.

31:24

You know, people it's not all about the Bitcoin ETF. I don't think that's gonna move the needle as much. It'll be positive

You know, people it's not all about the Bitcoin ETF. I don't think that's gonna move the needle as much. It'll be positive

31:31

only in a positive market.

only in a positive market.

31:33

Yeah. Yeah. The the way you describe this, like, it's not one giant wall of money. And, like, most things, it's not, you know, a single moment in time where it just goes from from not here to here. It's like a it's more like a cascade of dominoes. And every day, you hear something. It's a that's another domino that's tipping the next domino.

Yeah. Yeah. The the way you describe this, like, it's not one giant wall of money. And, like, most things, it's not, you know, a single moment in time where it just goes from from not here to here. It's like a it's more like a cascade of dominoes. And every day, you hear something. It's a that's another domino that's tipping the next domino.

31:50

Oh, yeah. Each one influences the next one. And then you sort of once you tip it off, it would which has already happened, it just takes a matter of time until the whole Domino set it run through, and and it's all it's all it's all Yeah. And I I'm seeing institutions

Oh, yeah. Each one influences the next one. And then you sort of once you tip it off, it would which has already happened, it just takes a matter of time until the whole Domino set it run through, and and it's all it's all it's all Yeah. And I I'm seeing institutions

32:04

using this weakness

using this weakness

32:05

and not being frightened by it. So that, look, this is fantastic opportunity.

and not being frightened by it. So that, look, this is fantastic opportunity.

32:10

I need to use this. I get it to volatile space. They they understand the people who are trying to put capital work, understand.

I need to use this. I get it to volatile space. They they understand the people who are trying to put capital work, understand.

32:17

But once the price starts going up again, then you'll see the stampede.

But once the price starts going up again, then you'll see the stampede.

32:21

You know, you know, if bitcoins are

You know, you know, if bitcoins are

32:24

sixty five thousand or seventy thousand.

sixty five thousand or seventy thousand.

32:29

Then people say, okay. We've had a year long correction.

Then people say, okay. We've had a year long correction.

32:33

It's now going up. Next phase is gonna go to hundred and sixty.

It's now going up. Next phase is gonna go to hundred and sixty.

32:36

Right. And they'll be in and they'll be in and they'll be a mad panic because they've all been doing the work over the last year and a half. They'll be like, we've gotta get in now. Gotta get in now because if they don't, they miss the outperformance of their peers who've got it.

Right. And they'll be in and they'll be in and they'll be a mad panic because they've all been doing the work over the last year and a half. They'll be like, we've gotta get in now. Gotta get in now because if they don't, they miss the outperformance of their peers who've got it.

32:49

And what do you do with your do you,

And what do you do with your do you,

32:52

like, let put it into defy or your earning interest or your yields for you? You put it in a in a pocket away. They don't touch it. Do you remember that story of the house in Spain? Once you win something,

like, let put it into defy or your earning interest or your yields for you? You put it in a in a pocket away. They don't touch it. Do you remember that story of the house in Spain? Once you win something,

33:03

you don't let somebody else take it away from you.

you don't let somebody else take it away from you.

33:08

It's as simple as that because if I was staking,

It's as simple as that because if I was staking,

33:11

I get, what, five percent yield or if I'm really clever and I'm mess around in deep defy. I'm getting, like, a fifteen percent yield,

I get, what, five percent yield or if I'm really clever and I'm mess around in deep defy. I'm getting, like, a fifteen percent yield,

33:20

and then I get ragged.

and then I get ragged.

33:22

Yeah. Or something goes wrong, or is on an exchange that gets hacked I just that's not the risk I want to take.

Yeah. Or something goes wrong, or is on an exchange that gets hacked I just that's not the risk I want to take.

33:28

It's not worth it if my expected future return is, you know, ten x.

It's not worth it if my expected future return is, you know, ten x.

33:33

Why take why get a five percent yield? It's nonsensical.

Why take why get a five percent yield? It's nonsensical.

33:37

So I just don't do it. Why why take yeah. Exactly. It's basically why take a even if it's a small chance of multiple playing the whole thing by zero.

So I just don't do it. Why why take yeah. Exactly. It's basically why take a even if it's a small chance of multiple playing the whole thing by zero.

33:44

You know, that's that's not really the the bet to make. What I do is I take a very small percentage. I say, this is my learning budget. Like, because I, you know, basically, if I had done that with Bitcoin, I would have just sort of sat on my Bitcoin never touched anything else. And I said, well, no. Actually, it was quite useful to start playing in Ethereum fairly early on. And similarly now it's playing in DFI or NFTs. You take a learning budget and you say, Look, this isn't the principle. This isn't the one that's gonna make all the money.

You know, that's that's not really the the bet to make. What I do is I take a very small percentage. I say, this is my learning budget. Like, because I, you know, basically, if I had done that with Bitcoin, I would have just sort of sat on my Bitcoin never touched anything else. And I said, well, no. Actually, it was quite useful to start playing in Ethereum fairly early on. And similarly now it's playing in DFI or NFTs. You take a learning budget and you say, Look, this isn't the principle. This isn't the one that's gonna make all the money.

34:09

But this is also where I get to, you know, continue to play the game and understand how this whole thing unfolds.

But this is also where I get to, you know, continue to play the game and understand how this whole thing unfolds.

34:16

Yeah. And I've

Yeah. And I've

34:18

I've never been interested in yield, even in financial markets, all yield stuff is boring to me. I'm a I'm a guy who likes the capsule game root.

I've never been interested in yield, even in financial markets, all yield stuff is boring to me. I'm a I'm a guy who likes the capsule game root.

34:26

Yeah. And different people. Right? There's a whole bunch of people who love Yale. It's called Carrie in Financial Markets. They wanna get Carrie

Yeah. And different people. Right? There's a whole bunch of people who love Yale. It's called Carrie in Financial Markets. They wanna get Carrie

34:33

and others wanna go for performance.

and others wanna go for performance.

34:35

And they're two different equations, and the carry guys do really, really well until they blow up, and that the guys like me tend to do mediocre mediocre and then make huge things. They're just different ways of skinning the cat.

And they're two different equations, and the carry guys do really, really well until they blow up, and that the guys like me tend to do mediocre mediocre and then make huge things. They're just different ways of skinning the cat.

34:46

Right. So I spent my time because we don't have enough

Right. So I spent my time because we don't have enough

34:50

mental ability to focus on all the things in the space. So I started going down a different rabbit hole. I saw NFTs. I understood it mainly,

mental ability to focus on all the things in the space. So I started going down a different rabbit hole. I saw NFTs. I understood it mainly,

35:00

Not all of it. I understood that, you know, that the the the macro view of what these things are and how big this is I wasn't really that interested in these communities.

Not all of it. I understood that, you know, that the the the macro view of what these things are and how big this is I wasn't really that interested in these communities.

35:10

But I've done Give the give the, here's my understanding of NFTs because I think, like, you know, the The third most Google question is, like, what is an NFT? So so, you know, even people who,

But I've done Give the give the, here's my understanding of NFTs because I think, like, you know, the The third most Google question is, like, what is an NFT? So so, you know, even people who,

35:20

like, hear about it, maybe even own a couple, but they don't have a great frame

like, hear about it, maybe even own a couple, but they don't have a great frame

35:24

And I think you're very good at framing things. And so give a give us your current frame of NFTs.

And I think you're very good at framing things. And so give a give us your current frame of NFTs.

35:29

So

So

35:30

Ethereum

Ethereum

35:31

introduced a piece of magic,

introduced a piece of magic,

35:34

in a smart contract.

in a smart contract.

35:36

A smart contract

A smart contract

35:38

attached to a blockchain

attached to a blockchain

35:40

means that Any contract in existence can now be attached to a blockchain.

means that Any contract in existence can now be attached to a blockchain.

35:46

And smart contracts allowed an algorithm or a calculation to be made automatically verified on the chain.

And smart contracts allowed an algorithm or a calculation to be made automatically verified on the chain.

35:54

So that could be your insurance contract for your house.

So that could be your insurance contract for your house.

35:56

It could be any of the contracts. I mean, if you look around you, almost everything that we have in life is a contract.

It could be any of the contracts. I mean, if you look around you, almost everything that we have in life is a contract.

36:02

Mhmm.

Mhmm.

36:03

Whether it's a spoken contract or written Me appearing on this together with you is a form of contract. Right? So all of these things are contractual relationships. They're everywhere. What this was saying is we can record all of them and verify all of Okay. So that's a really big concept beyond which most people understand.

Whether it's a spoken contract or written Me appearing on this together with you is a form of contract. Right? So all of these things are contractual relationships. They're everywhere. What this was saying is we can record all of them and verify all of Okay. So that's a really big concept beyond which most people understand.

36:18

And you can understand that, okay, if that's the case, then

And you can understand that, okay, if that's the case, then

36:22

a house can go on blockchain.

a house can go on blockchain.

36:24

Yes.

Yes.

36:25

Because the deeds, and then you don't need a notary, and then you don't need lawyers, and there's all of this stuff. Most legal stuff can actually go on this.

Because the deeds, and then you don't need a notary, and then you don't need lawyers, and there's all of this stuff. Most legal stuff can actually go on this.

36:34

And then the breakthrough is that, okay, we've got another thing that's going on in digital world

And then the breakthrough is that, okay, we've got another thing that's going on in digital world

36:40

which needs solving. So this contract thing's a big deal. We don't even know what this means yet. Right? When we talk in ten years time, we'll go, oh my god. We need to see that coming. Right? So that's all happening and defies that. There's contractual

which needs solving. So this contract thing's a big deal. We don't even know what this means yet. Right? When we talk in ten years time, we'll go, oh my god. We need to see that coming. Right? So that's all happening and defies that. There's contractual

36:53

obligations

obligations

36:54

between borrowers and lenders. It's all happening on chain.

between borrowers and lenders. It's all happening on chain.

36:58

But what the what the

But what the what the

37:00

the the average person is seeing is a different breakthrough that came out of this whole concept

the the average person is seeing is a different breakthrough that came out of this whole concept

37:05

is in digital world,

is in digital world,

37:08

everything that gets digitized

everything that gets digitized

37:09

goes to zero in value

goes to zero in value

37:12

or cost.

or cost.

37:13

Everything.

Everything.

37:15

Right? The price of data, the price of everything is zero over time.

Right? The price of data, the price of everything is zero over time.

37:21

So that's a big problem.

So that's a big problem.

37:23

If you're in living in an increasingly digital world.

If you're in living in an increasingly digital world.

37:27

So how do you cement digital value?

So how do you cement digital value?

37:30

Is you have to introduce a system of scarcity?

Is you have to introduce a system of scarcity?

37:33

And an NFT

And an NFT

37:34

allows a digital asset to have scarcity.

allows a digital asset to have scarcity.

37:38

Okay. Breakthrough.

Okay. Breakthrough.

37:40

Now it could have come from the music industry, could have come from a number of different places. It ended up being the art market.

Now it could have come from the music industry, could have come from a number of different places. It ended up being the art market.

37:47

Okay.

Okay.

37:49

And where you can say, this stuff that was now was basically worthless online.

And where you can say, this stuff that was now was basically worthless online.

37:56

I mean, Getty had bought a bunch of image rights, but to police it is really bloody hard as well.

I mean, Getty had bought a bunch of image rights, but to police it is really bloody hard as well.

38:01

So, okay. Now

So, okay. Now

38:03

we can create a one of one of value or a number and do that. So that becomes the value of an n f t. The next part of an NFT

we can create a one of one of value or a number and do that. So that becomes the value of an n f t. The next part of an NFT

38:12

that you say, okay. Well, if we give a bunch of people these,

that you say, okay. Well, if we give a bunch of people these,

38:16

we can now identify a community.

we can now identify a community.

38:20

And then these people can be like minded communities because they coalesce around an idea, which is this piece of art and this community, which is board eight yacht club or crypto punks. So that becomes in incredibly value. It's a membership to a club, and it's your identification. It's showing your Rolex, and, you know, it's all about

And then these people can be like minded communities because they coalesce around an idea, which is this piece of art and this community, which is board eight yacht club or crypto punks. So that becomes in incredibly value. It's a membership to a club, and it's your identification. It's showing your Rolex, and, you know, it's all about

38:36

stupid identifying tribal stuff that humans do endlessly and always haven't always will. So that's going on, and it allows us to forget the internet

stupid identifying tribal stuff that humans do endlessly and always haven't always will. So that's going on, and it allows us to forget the internet

38:46

had taken us from our towns villages families, which is our social structure,

had taken us from our towns villages families, which is our social structure,

38:50

and thrown us into a big shouting room from people all around the world with different views. Right? It's quite exhausting,

and thrown us into a big shouting room from people all around the world with different views. Right? It's quite exhausting,

38:57

and we all wanted a place.

and we all wanted a place.

39:01

And what this is giving us

And what this is giving us

39:03

is these little digital communities, sovereign states, villages, towns, cities,

is these little digital communities, sovereign states, villages, towns, cities,

39:09

where we can now operate with

where we can now operate with

39:12

civocally minded people

civocally minded people

39:14

within that, and these tokens are the identifier. Social tokens are the big thing. They're they're not come They've only just started. That's much bigger, I think, than even NFTs are. But let's start with this because this is a way of coalescing humans because humans like these kind of identification

within that, and these tokens are the identifier. Social tokens are the big thing. They're they're not come They've only just started. That's much bigger, I think, than even NFTs are. But let's start with this because this is a way of coalescing humans because humans like these kind of identification

39:29

system of shared values, that kind of stuff. So NFTs are a lot of things.

system of shared values, that kind of stuff. So NFTs are a lot of things.

39:34

That's why they're so big.

That's why they're so big.

39:36

And

And

39:37

again, that's just scratching the surface of what this is. It's you it can also and will also be your digital identity online.

again, that's just scratching the surface of what this is. It's you it can also and will also be your digital identity online.

39:44

Right. And you said something about music, and I saw you tweeting about music and kind of the future of music royalties or, like, how anybody can become an a and r, you know, person now describe what you kind of what what you're thinking there, because I think that'll be fascinating to a lot of people because music is one of the music like art is a great entry point for a lot of people, whereas, you know, Macro investing is deeper in. Correct. So what is the world's most vibrant communities?

Right. And you said something about music, and I saw you tweeting about music and kind of the future of music royalties or, like, how anybody can become an a and r, you know, person now describe what you kind of what what you're thinking there, because I think that'll be fascinating to a lot of people because music is one of the music like art is a great entry point for a lot of people, whereas, you know, Macro investing is deeper in. Correct. So what is the world's most vibrant communities?

40:09

It's

It's

40:10

sports and it's culture.

sports and it's culture.

40:12

That's fashion brands.

That's fashion brands.

40:15

Fashion brands more than any others.

Fashion brands more than any others.

40:19

It's music.

It's music.

40:20

It's art. It's these things. Right? Culture.

It's art. It's these things. Right? Culture.

40:23

The big unlock here

The big unlock here

40:26

is if you can tokenize communities,

is if you can tokenize communities,

40:29

which is now the network owner is the same as the network user. Remember that Facebook example? Right. So now we've got

which is now the network owner is the same as the network user. Remember that Facebook example? Right. So now we've got

40:37

pop star

pop star

40:39

and token holder.

and token holder.

40:41

They're all now joined in the same network.

They're all now joined in the same network.

40:44

So now every incentivized

So now every incentivized

40:46

to grow the value of that network, you've now made culture and investment.

to grow the value of that network, you've now made culture and investment.

40:51

This was not possible.

This was not possible.

40:53

You could take a cultural marker like an Adidas sneaker,

You could take a cultural marker like an Adidas sneaker,

40:57

but you weren't making money from Alice. You had to buy the shares.

but you weren't making money from Alice. You had to buy the shares.

41:00

And there was no connection between the consumers. There was no network of Adidas users.

And there was no connection between the consumers. There was no network of Adidas users.

41:05

Now

Now

41:06

you're about to create networks amongst these people. So what is the value of LVMH, the fashion company? Right? With all of its kinda mega brands that people are passionate about, that are status symbols that humans like We've just talked about love these things. So the same with music. Right? We're all travel in music. We love different music. We like different bands.

you're about to create networks amongst these people. So what is the value of LVMH, the fashion company? Right? With all of its kinda mega brands that people are passionate about, that are status symbols that humans like We've just talked about love these things. So the same with music. Right? We're all travel in music. We love different music. We like different bands.

41:26

So to be part of that network,

So to be part of that network,

41:28

I could now be a sixteen year old kid and never have to have a job because I happen to get involved in the right and good at binding the next pop star.

I could now be a sixteen year old kid and never have to have a job because I happen to get involved in the right and good at binding the next pop star.

41:38

But if I buy their social tokens,

But if I buy their social tokens,

41:41

or I invest in their song IP on NFTs,

or I invest in their song IP on NFTs,

41:44

right?

right?

41:45

I'm in business. So what this is creating is a system I think is universal basic equity,

I'm in business. So what this is creating is a system I think is universal basic equity,

41:51

where culture is the investment. They're not living in your and I world where they're building businesses,

where culture is the investment. They're not living in your and I world where they're building businesses,

41:56

and having to sell them and go through the entrepreneur's miserable journey.

and having to sell them and go through the entrepreneur's miserable journey.

42:00

They don't have to do that.

They don't have to do that.

42:02

They do a different way.

They do a different way.

42:04

Which is by using their human instincts about the communities they wanna be part of and which networks are gonna thrive.

Which is by using their human instincts about the communities they wanna be part of and which networks are gonna thrive.

42:11

And music is so powerful because it's human emotion.

And music is so powerful because it's human emotion.

42:16

And people re and it's it's a place in time. And I remember I'm

And people re and it's it's a place in time. And I remember I'm

42:20

huge music fan. And, you know, I identify music by its year, what I was doing, what it smelled like, what I heard, who I was hanging out with, I mean, everything. Right? New music is is one of those anchoring things.

huge music fan. And, you know, I identify music by its year, what I was doing, what it smelled like, what I heard, who I was hanging out with, I mean, everything. Right? New music is is one of those anchoring things.

42:31

So

So

42:32

just the ability for musicians to now sell directly and have a direct relationship with their fans via social tokens and NFTs

just the ability for musicians to now sell directly and have a direct relationship with their fans via social tokens and NFTs

42:40

is literally a game changer. I mean, there is no way on earth, snoop dog would have been able to sell something in small numbers,

is literally a game changer. I mean, there is no way on earth, snoop dog would have been able to sell something in small numbers,

42:48

and make fifty million dollars.

and make fifty million dollars.

42:51

It's just not that big a star because record labels,

It's just not that big a star because record labels,

42:55

because eighty percent of all the economics of selling music gets taken by middlemen. So he'd he'd have to sell a huge sum to do that.

because eighty percent of all the economics of selling music gets taken by middlemen. So he'd he'd have to sell a huge sum to do that.

43:04

Or he'd have to go on tour. And to make fifty million dollars, That's a big exhausting tour. You know, he's no spring chicken anymore. These things are, you know, it it the music industry, economics got destroyed by middlemen,

Or he'd have to go on tour. And to make fifty million dollars, That's a big exhausting tour. You know, he's no spring chicken anymore. These things are, you know, it it the music industry, economics got destroyed by middlemen,

43:15

And it made the artist have to work harder,

And it made the artist have to work harder,

43:18

take more risk with capital, which is, like, have to go on a massive tour, have to rent arenas and take these trucks,

take more risk with capital, which is, like, have to go on a massive tour, have to rent arenas and take these trucks,

43:23

This changes all of that dynamic, and the metaverse change it one stage further.

This changes all of that dynamic, and the metaverse change it one stage further.

43:28

Yeah. Like, the artist had to create,

Yeah. Like, the artist had to create,

43:30

scarcity

scarcity

43:31

which was basically

which was basically

43:33

come to my concert. There's only x tickets, and that's how you can see me. And then they also created status, which was take photos of yourself at this concert, post that online, and that's a big part of the value that you're gonna get out of, out of coming to this thing. And then now we have a digital version of that, which is And and so when all these people spoke to each other, the fans, they'd have to go on a Facebook group, and Facebook monetizes

come to my concert. There's only x tickets, and that's how you can see me. And then they also created status, which was take photos of yourself at this concert, post that online, and that's a big part of the value that you're gonna get out of, out of coming to this thing. And then now we have a digital version of that, which is And and so when all these people spoke to each other, the fans, they'd have to go on a Facebook group, and Facebook monetizes

43:54

them. Right. Right? And if they wanna go on tour, they need to go on Facebook and Google and pay everybody.

them. Right. Right? And if they wanna go on tour, they need to go on Facebook and Google and pay everybody.

44:00

But when you've got millions of token holders, You've sold out fifty percent of your tool. You've derisked everything in minutes.

But when you've got millions of token holders, You've sold out fifty percent of your tool. You've derisked everything in minutes.

44:08

It's just it it stops you having to use middle mental time.

It's just it it stops you having to use middle mental time.

44:12

And,

And,

44:13

you talked about two different things. There's, like, the sort of, like, almost like the

you talked about two different things. There's, like, the sort of, like, almost like the

44:16

thousand true fans, you know, concept where basically an artist can drop something that's rare and exclusive or access to them or their their fan club.

thousand true fans, you know, concept where basically an artist can drop something that's rare and exclusive or access to them or their their fan club.

44:26

And the it gives the whales you know, something to go buy that they would, you know, that they're they're actually willing to buy for more than just a t shirt. Now you give them something worth buying. And so that's that's one thing that you could do with it. The other one is what you're talking about buying a stream of,

And the it gives the whales you know, something to go buy that they would, you know, that they're they're actually willing to buy for more than just a t shirt. Now you give them something worth buying. And so that's that's one thing that you could do with it. The other one is what you're talking about buying a stream of,

44:40

a part of the royalty, right, the part of the royalty stream. And so that's where, you know, I remember, I don't know.

a part of the royalty, right, the part of the royalty stream. And so that's where, you know, I remember, I don't know.

44:47

I remember finding Michael Moore, the the artist when he had, like, you know, whatever

I remember finding Michael Moore, the the artist when he had, like, you know, whatever

44:52

two thousand fans. And I was, like, this guy's great. And, like, if I had actually being able to bet that this guy's great and therefore be a part of his community. He views me as a backer and true believer. And I did. I remember I kinda did a kickstarter with him or whatever. He he pre sold his album, and I just gave him, you know, thirty bucks because, yeah, go use this to help make your album, pay for some studio time. But he didn't know me. I didn't have a relationship, and I had nothing to show for being right. And, and so now in this in a world like this, where the sixteen year old kid can say, I think these guys are gonna be great. Their prices cheap right now, and I could buy, you know, some of their future.

two thousand fans. And I was, like, this guy's great. And, like, if I had actually being able to bet that this guy's great and therefore be a part of his community. He views me as a backer and true believer. And I did. I remember I kinda did a kickstarter with him or whatever. He he pre sold his album, and I just gave him, you know, thirty bucks because, yeah, go use this to help make your album, pay for some studio time. But he didn't know me. I didn't have a relationship, and I had nothing to show for being right. And, and so now in this in a world like this, where the sixteen year old kid can say, I think these guys are gonna be great. Their prices cheap right now, and I could buy, you know, some of their future.

45:26

That's kind of exciting.

That's kind of exciting.

45:27

Even more magic.

Even more magic.

45:29

Because that sixteen year old kid, because he's now financially incentivized to grow the network and make that song a success. Right. It sounds always right. Like hundred TikTok videos.

Because that sixteen year old kid, because he's now financially incentivized to grow the network and make that song a success. Right. It sounds always right. Like hundred TikTok videos.

45:39

Yeah. Exactly.

Yeah. Exactly.

45:40

Right. And if you multiply that by all of the token holders of those those IP rights,

Right. And if you multiply that by all of the token holders of those those IP rights,

45:46

They're all marketing

They're all marketing

45:48

free for you because they get paid in the upside. It's genius.

free for you because they get paid in the upside. It's genius.

45:52

I mean, think about it. Like,

I mean, think about it. Like,

45:54

you know, if you doubt what you just said, just think about, you know, who who's Bitcoin's CMO?

you know, if you doubt what you just said, just think about, you know, who who's Bitcoin's CMO?

45:59

Who's who's the chief marketing officer there? How what's their ad budget? And then how much publicity do they get? Who's their PR person? How much publicity do they get? How much chatter? How much, you know, the ticker that's sitting on CNBC all day showing the Bitcoin price Right. Like, all of this happened because you had a network of people incentivized

Who's who's the chief marketing officer there? How what's their ad budget? And then how much publicity do they get? Who's their PR person? How much publicity do they get? How much chatter? How much, you know, the ticker that's sitting on CNBC all day showing the Bitcoin price Right. Like, all of this happened because you had a network of people incentivized

46:16

to go shout to the world how great this thing is.

to go shout to the world how great this thing is.

46:19

You know, and and people hate that about crypto. Oh, it's just people shilling their thing. Yes. And that does get annoying and, you know, you have to filter, you know, signal from noise. But at the same time, you have appreciate what that does. It turns every every believer into a a market.

You know, and and people hate that about crypto. Oh, it's just people shilling their thing. Yes. And that does get annoying and, you know, you have to filter, you know, signal from noise. But at the same time, you have appreciate what that does. It turns every every believer into a a market.

46:33

Every society is the same.

Every society is the same.

46:36

So if we think of everything as the same, So let's assume Bitcoin is a social token. If theorems are social token, let's assume the US dollars are social token, and let's assume

So if we think of everything as the same, So let's assume Bitcoin is a social token. If theorems are social token, let's assume the US dollars are social token, and let's assume

46:46

that

that

46:48

religion

religion

46:49

is a social status token essentially.

is a social status token essentially.

46:53

So

So

46:54

everybody goes the same way to increase the value of that thing. So the US is like, we've got military might and we're the greatest nation. This is the free place and everybody can become a president. Right? That's their narrative.

everybody goes the same way to increase the value of that thing. So the US is like, we've got military might and we're the greatest nation. This is the free place and everybody can become a president. Right? That's their narrative.

47:05

Right? Every country is a different narrative

Right? Every country is a different narrative

47:07

to drive its value system for its network because they all require incoming capital to support the network, including the church, which couldn't have survived without incoming capital. So they get all these people out to go and tell the word of god. They then spread the the dish around, take money in, it builds the church, it grows the network. They're all the same. That's a few minutes. The the book sapiens kinda goes through this a lot about how

to drive its value system for its network because they all require incoming capital to support the network, including the church, which couldn't have survived without incoming capital. So they get all these people out to go and tell the word of god. They then spread the the dish around, take money in, it builds the church, it grows the network. They're all the same. That's a few minutes. The the book sapiens kinda goes through this a lot about how

47:33

humans need to self organize.

humans need to self organize.

47:35

Yes. I, well said. I think that's a that's a perfect zoom out. We can kind of even even pause or stop there. So Raul, where where should people so follow you on Twitter, your Raul GMI.

Yes. I, well said. I think that's a that's a perfect zoom out. We can kind of even even pause or stop there. So Raul, where where should people so follow you on Twitter, your Raul GMI.

47:47

You also have real vision and people should go sign up for that. Yeah. I mean, look, people are interesting really easy. I've set up entire free crypto

You also have real vision and people should go sign up for that. Yeah. I mean, look, people are interesting really easy. I've set up entire free crypto

47:55

channel,

channel,

47:56

which is real vision crypto dot com. It's all the great and the good of the entire industry. Everybody every week I interview,

which is real vision crypto dot com. It's all the great and the good of the entire industry. Everybody every week I interview,

48:03

like, who I think are the people I really wanna pick the brains of. And I go down all these journeys of social tokens and music and macro and all of this stuff. So there's so much there and it's free. Real vision crypto dot com.

like, who I think are the people I really wanna pick the brains of. And I go down all these journeys of social tokens and music and macro and all of this stuff. So there's so much there and it's free. Real vision crypto dot com.

48:14

Awesome. Alright. Thank you for coming on. Appreciate it. I really enjoyed it. Thank you.

Awesome. Alright. Thank you for coming on. Appreciate it. I really enjoyed it. Thank you.

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