00:00
He predicts
00:01
that Sam Bankman Freed is going to get life in prison. And I thought that that was an incredibly interesting prediction
00:08
you know, Bernie Madoff got, you know, hundreds of years. There's this other,
00:13
ponzi scheme guy that I was reading about based out of Texas who also got like a hundred and fifty years And so it's not crazy that that could happen. You know, people who commit these hundreds of millions and billions of dollars apaunte schemes, they get life in prison.
00:33
Alright. We are live. Sean?
00:36
I'm in my, my official
00:38
Crypto hoodie. What is that? This is fine.
00:41
Oh, yeah. That's wonderful. Perfect, Cody, for today. This is all I've been wanting to talk about. I purposely haven't texted you about this. Because this is all I wanna talk about, but,
00:51
like, maybe just give, like, a three to five minute background on what's going on. I think you're the guy that should be doing that. And then I wanna tell you Some of the more interesting points that I think maybe haven't been covered or are less covered than I think are either hilarious or interesting.
01:06
Okay. Great.
01:08
And by the way, should we check if my,
01:11
I have a twenty five thousand dollar withdrawal. That's,
01:14
that we will see who will see if FTX has any money left. I'm gonna check right now and see if it's come through.
01:22
What do you think? Yes or no? Did I get my twenty five grand out? I think you I think you probably got it. I did it on November ninth. It's now November fourteenth. It said it would happen by today, and it is
01:33
not in the bank account. Alright. There we go. Just another disappointment. Okay. So why don't I have my deposit
01:39
actually, it's not even a deposit. They they advertise with us. And so they paid me inside FX, and I was just lazy and never went through it.
01:47
Okay. So
01:48
Basically, what has happened, here's the what happened for those who aren't following it that closely. FTX, which is a big crypto exchange. It's a place you go. To buy, sell different cryptocurrencies.
02:00
It was,
02:01
I think, the number two or three largest exchange in the world,
02:05
used mostly
02:06
internationally,
02:09
because
02:10
it was kinda like, you know, people all around the world wanna buy, I think ninety plus percent of people buying crypto are international.
02:18
And so FTS is huge. Coinbase, but bigger than coinbase. Bigger than coinbase. Binance is number one. Think there's technically something number two, but really it's like Binance number one, FTX two, and sort of like coinbase and the others, you know, come after that. Okay. So FCX, which was this blue chip thing. And it was
02:36
seen as this, like, you know, mega success story. You would see
02:40
top investors,
02:42
in the world that we're investing in this of Sequoia,
02:46
which is like, you know, a preeminent VC firm plus, like, you know, fifty others.
02:50
We're investing in this. He's on the cover of fortune magazine, and it says, you know, the next JP Morgan,
02:56
because he's, you know, this this This young guy who becomes one of the wealthiest men in crypto. They say FTx at its peak was worth about thirty two billion dollars.
03:07
And this company is only like four years old. Right? So it was had this like crazy explosive
03:12
growth and valuation.
03:13
Sam was said to be worth sixteen billion dollars himself
03:17
He's this genius trader
03:19
and,
03:20
now entrepreneur.
03:22
He's this crazy eccentric guy. The guy looks goofy as hell. He's a he's a vegan who doesn't wear shoes and gives away all of his money, if they're effective altruism, whatever. You know, he's got this sort of character that everybody wants to talk about.
03:34
Of which, I bought into. Very easy to buy buy into. You know, this, like, you crazy person who sleeps on the floor of his desk, in. Sleeping on the bean bag. Believe in normal stuff, and he's at twenty nine or thirty worth
03:48
north of ten billion dollars. And he previously made a billion plus by doing arbitrage with, like, Korean cryptos, just some crazy shit. I bought into it. So that's the background. We all go on this this,
03:59
most people are on that train of, like, okay. I guess that's what it is.
04:03
And then
04:04
suddenly,
04:05
last week,
04:07
there's series of events, we can go into however much detail we want. But there's a series of events that basically causes a bank run on FTX. So users lose confidence that FTX is solvent
04:17
which means they say I gotta get my money off fifty x just as I did. You go, you hit the withdraw button. Just in case there's any weird stuff going on, we've seen many things crash in twenty twenty two in crypto.
04:28
Luna was one,
04:30
Voyager Celsius.
04:31
There was a handful of these things that crashed people said better safe than sorry. Let's start withdrawing our money. That creates a, solvents, a liquidity crisis for FDX. They don't have the money give. And everyone's like, where the hell is the money? Why don't you have the money? That's my deposit. That's my funds. You know, you go to the bank. You expect them to have your money. And so FTX does not have their money. He comes out. He says everything is fine. All the assets are fine, guys. This is just you know, a hoax from a competitor. There's a competitor trying to f with us. Blah blah blah. Binance is that competitor that he's talking about.
05:04
So he's basically saying, oh, the big the big the number one guys coming after us, but we're fine guys. Don't don't panic. People still panic.
05:11
And in fact, he was lying. Turns out there's basically this guy was a giant fraud.
05:16
You know, if you believe all the things have been coming out, so allegedly, we'll just say the word allegedly.
05:21
This guy was lying, deceiving everybody,
05:24
misusing customer funds, etcetera, etcetera. FTX goes under. It goes from a twenty to thirty billion dollar company a company that is now declaring bankruptcy
05:34
billions of dollars. There's like a ten billions there's like ten billion dollars worth of customer funds that are
05:40
gone, vaporized, unaccounted for. This guy's fleeing the country and, you know, all kinds of crazy stuff. So that I'll just set that as the background. Now now we can go into whatever parts you wanna go into. Alright. So there's been a lot of interesting things that have happened and I wanna name a few.
05:55
You know, there's this story's a week old now. So a lot of the the stuff has been covered on the facts. We can talk about the facts if we want, but I wanna talk about like some things that I think haven't been covered. First,
06:05
the things happening on Twitter are amazing. This is all unraveling in real time on Twitter. One of the more interesting and funny ones, there's a Twitter handle called
06:16
autism capital.
06:18
The most based citizen
06:20
journalism in crypto, we are currently following the FTS
06:23
saga, but please be patient. We have autism.
06:26
That's their
06:29
that's their, that's our source of truth, by the way. That's that is who we are receiving on at times of trouble right now. But listen,
06:37
it's hilarious.
06:39
And I think a lot of right. It's sort of like TMZ. TMZ is like considered a trash because they sit there fast paced and they say a lot of stuff that eventually everyone's wrong, they have to recant. And say, oh, no. You know, we got this wrong. But you know what? They fucking nail it. They called Prince being dead or about to die. They call all this other stuff And that is exactly what's happening. There's so there's all these interesting things that autism capital is tweeting like SBF, that's this guy Sam, the founder. SPF did a master class, you know, the company master class on trading, and it was set to release in December, and it's already been filmed. That's like an interesting thing they tweeted. Another interesting thing they tweeted is basically SBF's right hand woman was this woman named Caroline who rumors are that they also were like sleeping together She ran the hedge fund. So that SPF owns all this weird collusion. She has a tumbler that, Tism Capital found
07:29
And, it it says she had a post called World Optimization
07:33
where her kink is men who control
07:35
most major world government.
07:38
Like, that's that's another. Exactly. It's like people
07:41
say, oh, I want this, but what I want is like a man who's like to troll society's government things like that. It's like, what the hell are you talking about?
07:50
Yeah, dude, so I've I've followed them. Like, we I mean, if you're encrypted, you follow these people, you you know, you know, these are con the Sam was considered one of the, like, you know, more blue chip. Of course, there's always some people that are like, this guy's full of shit or I don't trust this guy or whatever, but they're like the a small small small minority. The majority
08:08
of people believed
08:09
that FTX was this fast growing company and that Sam was this, like, really interesting, really smart founder.
08:16
And then you knew the the one part that was always shady. So for example, when they advertise with us, They asked us to write a story on FTX, and we were like, okay. Great. We'll write the story about how you guys grew so fast, what tactics you used, why, you know, why why it grew so fast. And we write the story. And then,
08:31
me and Ben were talking. We were like, you know,
08:34
stories all, like, you know, perfectly rosy, and that makes sense. This is like a sponsor
08:38
like, you know, deep dive, basically.
08:41
But, like, you know, we should put in what are some of the concerns. Even if nothing else just to, like, balance out the story so that it's, like, not literally just a fluff piece. So we were like, well, what are some of the criticisms?
08:52
And one was, like,
08:53
there well, before he started FTX, he started this company called Alameda Research. And Alameda Research is not a research company. It was a trading company. They just called it research, so it sounded a little more serious. But basically And and the rumors are, like, an autistic cap I think also shared this. They're like, well, Sam said he wanted to call it Alameda Research because that just had an official sounding name, and he also didn't want people to know that they were trading. Yeah. And in the entrepreneurial circles, it was like, oh, great little growth hack. Right? You know, it's like when you said, when we wanted to get advertisers for the hustle, I would first just write a fake ad for some other company that I'd go to their competitor and be like, Hey, you're if you want this spot and, like, you know, and there's a fake it till you make it, that's acceptable, and then there's a fake it till you're a fraud. Which is where this guy, like, went totally wrong. So so he had this trading company. The legend is basically that,
09:41
At the time, Bitcoin was trading at, let's say, ten grand in America, but in other countries where it was harder to access Bitcoin, there was a slight premium. People were willing to pay more for a Bitcoin because it was so hard to access because the government was, you know, maybe not allowing exchanges to run there properly or whatever. So in Japan and Korea,
09:59
everybody saw this, Bitcoin would be ten thousand here. It'd be eleven thousand or twelve thousand there. And so,
10:05
the the legend of the origin story for FTX is that Sam saw this. He was one of the people that exploited this arbitrage opportunity.
10:13
He, you know, he basically hustled, went to Korea, and, set up this, like, logistics chain where they could buy a million dollars of Bitcoin here, sell it first light premium there, wire the money back and do it again the next day. Just keep recycling the money. And that they made tons of money. And nobody really understood exactly how, like, there was some plot holes in this, but it was like, I don't know. I guess these guys are just smarter than us, but, like, It's like, wait, you made a billion dollars doing this. Now that sounds a little unreasonable. So you might have made, what, hundreds of millions, but where did you get the seed capital for this? Like, you weren't rich. So, like, how much initial money went into this, and there was never, like, some clarity there. So that was a little bit strange. But nobody really What what what's the answer to that? What's the answer to that?
10:54
The well, now it appears that the answer might have been that that just never even happened. That might have been a complete fabrication or they might have done it at a much smaller scale.
11:01
Nobody know nobody still knows the answer because this guy's like, you know, on the run or, you know, hiding, you know, right now. So
11:08
nobody doesn't answer that. But the the bigger part, the part that we wrote about was like, well, Alameda Research,
11:14
when FTX launched as an exchange, every change needs liquidity. When buyers and sellers come to the the site, they need to be able to quickly get their order filled. So you usually have a market maker or a liquidity provider basically who sits there and says, I'll I'll be the one who buys and sells things, and I'll take a small,
11:31
a small fee for providing that liquidity to the exchange so it runs better. So Alameda was the liquidity partner. It was the market maker for FTX.
11:39
And,
11:40
so everybody knew that and I was like, okay. Cool. But it's like, wait, but Sam owns both. He owns the exchange. And he owns the market maker. Isn't there some conflict of interest? So, you know, like, couldn't, you know, if this is a hedge fund, basically, that can go buy things, but then FTX can list those coins.
11:55
They'll know what they're gonna list. Right? So there's a little bit of a it's it's a conflict of interest. It's a little bit of, you know, cousins kissing there. And so we had wrote about that. We go, yo, they have this kissing, kissing cousins thing that people don't really like or nobody knows the true extent to this relationship between the two. And they were like, Hey, we need you to take that out. And we were like, well, we don't really think we should take it out. We think we're gonna keep it in. And they were like, okay. Cool. Like, but just pause this whole story. The crypto market prices are going down. We don't wanna be bragging about how well we're doing right now. So we were like, okay. You paid us don't want us to run the story. We'll never run the story. So we'd never ran it. But I remember at that time, a little there's a small red flag of, like, I'm surprised that instead of clarifying the relationship, they're like, Don't talk about that. And so that was a little bit of a red flag, but, you know, like most things when you have when you're reading nine out of ten things or or just saying how this is the wonder kid, and this is the best
12:47
best company. And then you just have this one little red flag, you sort of brush it aside, or at least that's what I which is a mistake.
12:53
By the way, the the the person that you worked with there, are they still there?
12:57
Nobody's there, dude. The company's done. Yeah. But the person that you worked with, what do they list on their LinkedIn now?
13:03
I I wasn't working directly with him. I I don't know the guy's name. I it's all, you know, Ben kinda was running the milk road really. So I I was just kinda, like, I would do the writing and then he would talk to the guy or whatever. So I don't know the guy's name. But,
13:15
anyways, that was just, like, one small thing. And so what ended happening, whether the the sort of cause of this was essentially that FTX
13:23
was illegally
13:24
and,
13:26
was lying to customers and was illegally taking customer money,
13:30
giving it to Alameda
13:32
through either a loan or just, like, straight up funneling the money there.
13:36
And then Alameda was going and trading using the customer money trying to turn a profit and was actually just, like, kinda bad at trading and was losing money.
13:43
And so then they didn't have the money to return
13:46
when all the customers wanted their money out. And,
13:49
when they, you know, quote unquote lent them the money,
13:52
the collateral that they put up to take the loan. Right. Right. Like, let's say users put in a more, like, solid currency. Let's say, like, Bitcoin.
14:02
Alameda borrows that Bitcoin to go trade,
14:05
and they put up in return as collateral FTT token, which is FTX's own internal token. That doesn't have, like, real, that much real value. So when they lost all the Bitcoin for just for, like, to make things simple here, when they lost all the Bitcoin, All FTX had was the shitty FTT token that wasn't where that was worthless. So now there's no there's a huge hole. They lent basically ten billion dollars out and then couldn't return it. And so they went they went under.
14:28
And basically now every day, there's more leaks about how crazy this situation was, how these guys were
14:34
liars, how they were doing this intentionally,
14:37
how they were doing drugs, how they were, you know, fifteen people sleeping together in this, like, mega mansion while he pretended to be this, like, big philanthropist,
14:45
And,
14:46
maybe he's an actor for the Chinese state. Who there's like crazy theories all around. And, you know, nobody knows the truth. And this guy's coming out And yesterday, he tweets for the first time, and everyone's like, oh my god. Here he comes. And he tweets out like a thread. And, you know, like, you start a thread with one. And then he used to say the first point, then you're gonna say two, and then the second point. He tweets out one, and all he says is what?
15:07
And then he sees and then he does nothing. And then he tweets out two and then the letter h.
15:14
What does that mean?
15:15
And then just now, a an hour ago, he tweeted out a,
15:19
and then eleven minutes ago, p
15:21
Maybe maybe he's like, what happened? I don't know what he's trying to do. I don't know what he's trying to do. I don't know what's going on. I don't know. Maybe he's having a break or something. Like, I mean, might be having a breakdown. He might have been Did I knew a guy who, like, was having a breakdown?
15:34
And, you know, he he had to be institutionalized and he was tweeting crazy shit you know, like, and this is how it started.
15:40
Maybe the guy's going through something like that. There's this, there's another interesting thing that happened with, Chammoth
15:45
on the all in pod. He's and this is another thing that I saw, I think also autism capital, they, like, clip this clip. And on the all in pod, Shamath, who has a whole bunch of other questionable things happening, but he said something interesting where he was, looking at investing in the FTX and
16:01
He was like, you know, it's kinda weird how you guys are kinda self dealing. I think you need a board and I think you need rules around what you can and can't not do with this. And he said, the person working at FTX called him back and literally said, Hey, go fuck yourself and just hang up. And that was the end of of the call.
16:19
Yeah. By the way, I think there's seventy percent chance that entire story is bullshit.
16:23
I think Chipathe is generally full of shit and, you know, so so I do not believe this story
16:29
for, for, for what it's worth.
16:31
But, dude, have you seen the videos? So the the woman name, I and I guess my point would be if you knew that something effed up was going on with this company, the most popular company in the in the world at that time in crypto.
16:42
And that if you knew that this was messed up, like, that there was fraud going on or deception or any of this stuff, you would have said something. Right? Like, so maybe what he said is, I don't know. I don't feel comfortable with this. But I I feel like he's trying to take some victory lap of being like No. In the video, in the clip, I believe Chamat said, He, he I I believe he he put emphasis on this. He goes, he literally said, go fuck yourself. No. No. That part, I believe, but I believe that they would say that. It's Thomas part where he goes, I called them. They pitched me. I said, this doesn't make much sense, but okay. I'll have my guys look into it. And my guys looked into it. We gave them a recommendation. You need government. You need to do this. You need to do that. You know, and, like, they said, go fuck yourself.
17:21
I don't know. Something about that picture being so white, ninety.
17:24
You know, raise more red flags to be as well. But a few other interesting things,
17:29
basically another Twitter thing. These guys have been doing these like marathon Twitter spaces. One of the guys named is Mario,
17:36
and he hosted this Twitter space where Elon pop popped in. And someone was like, hey, Elon, what did you think when you first met this guy SBF? He was well? People were telling me when I was buying Twitter that he had lots of monies, lots of money, but my bullshit meter was redlining.
17:51
And even all these major investment banks, were like, yeah, this guy is walking on water. He's the best. He's got he has money. And I just didn't think that he had the money, and I actually believe this story to be true. And it just, like, interesting because from an outside, you think, well, these billionaires all know each other. They know what's up. And, you know, like,
18:10
they they they know someone does or doesn't have money, they know if does. They do or do not know if someone's legit. And Elon's like, I had no idea if he was legit, but he didn't seem legit to me, but everyone else said he was. I thought that was like really interesting. I was like, oh, I thought this was like a club. We had to like show financials to get in inside of, and turns out that's not true. And also,
18:28
the balls of SBF to be buying stadiums,
18:31
to be hiring Tom Brady and all these other, like, you know, Larry David, these huge celebrities
18:37
This guy took this guy took a scam to the next level, you know, so much hubris to be tweeting or DMming
18:44
Elon, I mean, like, hey, I'm I'm down to put up three billion for buying Twitter. It's crazy. So so did you see the text messages that leaked of that?
18:52
Yeah. And, what did Elon say? He goes So, so,
18:55
basically,
18:56
the the text message that leaked that's on, this awesome Twitter handle called internal tech email. So you can go check it out there.
19:02
It's Michael Grimes, so I think he's, like, the head of He's like a banker, I think. Yeah. I think he's, like, one of the top guys at Morgan Stanley. So
19:11
what's his what's his actual he's a managing director,
19:14
at Morgan Stanley. So he texts
19:16
Elon, he goes, Hey, do you have five minutes for a meeting that I think you'll wanna take? Eela, it's like, I'll call you in half an hour. Micron's perfect. He goes. Sam Bank Mafreed is why I'm calling. He links to a, link of San Bank of Read, which is basically a link to a story that, like, Sam Big Mcread is, he was an effective altruist, meaning his goal was to make as much money as possible so that he could give it away. That was the best way that he could help and cause, like, positive change for society was by maximizing how much money you can make and then giving it away, which is like why there's all the memes of, like,
19:47
You did it. You took all our money and you gave it away. You know, like,
19:52
wow.
19:54
And so then Elon just replies two question marks. Like, What? And he goes, I'm backlog with a mountain of critical work matters. Is this urgent?
20:02
He goes, he wants one to five billion. Serious about partnering with you. Same security you own. Not urgent unless you wanted him to fly out tomorrow.
20:10
He goes, he could do five billion if everything is vision locked.
20:14
Would do engineering for the social media blockchain integration founded. He founded FTX. He believes in your mission, major democratic donor. He was the number two largest Democratic donor, forty, fifty millions, something like that.
20:25
He goes, so I thought it was worth a an hour tomorrow. He said he could shake hands on five, five billion. If you like him, and I think you will.
20:34
Can you talk with, you know, whatever? But it, you know, it could get us five billion in equity in an hour. He's, like, trying to sell it, like, take this meeting. Elon replies, blockchain Twitter isn't possible. As a bandwidth of latency requirements, blah blah blah, you know.
20:46
Basically, a blockchain Twitter won't work, so this doesn't make any sense.
20:50
And then
20:51
it says Elon. Dislight
20:53
could do five billion if, if,
20:56
if vision loss would do engineering for social media blockchain integration.
21:00
And then the maker goes. Got it. I'll forward the equity interest to this other guy instead. But even if there's not the blockchain piece, he's interested in investing,
21:08
in Twitter and your mission, but we can we can put him on the sideline for now. Everyone goes, long as I don't have to have a laborious blockchain debate,
21:17
which is honestly one of the cooler things that Elon has done or said in this entire thing, which is, like, Alright. I'll meet the Care crypto Bro. Just don't make me fucking. I don't wanna get into an hour long talk about block chains, please. And, that I thought was hilarious. You did. Then he goes,
21:33
The Sam actually have three billion liquid. And then the guy goes, like, yes, I think Sam hasn't. He actually set up to ten at one point. But in writing, he said up to five. He's into you. And, he said the blockchain's only if you're interested in not gonna push it. Blah blah blah. This other super rich guy, Orlando referred him.
21:51
And then he's like,
21:52
we can push him to next week, but I believe you'll like him. Ultra genius,
21:56
and doer builder like your formula. Built FTX from scratch after MIT Physics, second to Bloomberg and donations to Biden campaign.
22:04
And so that was, you know, the the Grimes. What's this guy's name? Mark Grimes? Dude, he's on the Grimes right now. You're you're fire bro. You are fired. Actually, we're we're calling him mark crimes instead of my comrades for whatever reason. The, we did this in the milk road. We were like, you know, it's just it's hard to report bad news every day, but it's like, hey, bad news. FTech's the biggest exchange insolvent. Bad news. Wasn't even just a calculation, you know, in good faith, it was actually fraud and deception that we think. And that's what it looks like. Oh, bad news. The money that they would have otherwise had pay out the remaining customer deposits. Oh, somebody just hacked it last night and took six took the last six hundred million. There's actually zero in the bank accounts now. So there is nothing left for anybody, because a guy literally just did this. And, oh, by the way, there's a plane going flying his private jet is flying to Argentina tonight.
22:54
We're tracking it here. And it's like, dude, this is horrible. And we're like, what are we gonna do? We're like, we're no longer calling this guy SBF. Nicknames are for winners. This guy is now Samuel. We're calling him his government name and like No, mister bankman.
23:07
No. Not even. No. Not even. He's Samuel, from now on.
23:14
Our software is the worst. Have you heard of HubSpot?
23:17
See, most CRMs are a cobbled together mess, but spot is easy to adopt and actually looks gorgeous. I think I love our new CRM. Our software is the best. Hub spot. Girl better.
23:28
We, I wanna ask you about milk roads engagement, but first,
23:32
you tweeted something and I agree with, basically, you're talking about, like, it just, like, I lose trust in so many things. I'm losing so SPF or not SPA, FTX owned, I think ten percent of Robinhood, which I have money in.
23:45
Not a huge sum of money. I think he personally,
23:48
him and Alameda owned the the nine percent or something to fit. I'm gonna sell. I'm gonna I'm getting all my money out of Robinhood. It this Yeah. I did that thing. I don't trust anything. I don't trust any new startup that is in banking.
24:02
I, by default, don't believe you whereas before
24:05
I would be like, oh, this is kinda cool, I guess. Like, you have Mastercards logo on there. I guess you're okay. Yeah. I'm not team innovation anymore.
24:12
Yeah. No. Fuck that. I'm going to Etrades. I'm getting my money off of,
24:17
Robinhood.
24:18
I to all the people who I said, oh, you don't, you know, you just don't get the disruptors. I'm sorry. You are right. I was wrong.
24:25
I'm sorry, daddy.
24:26
You are you are absolutely right. I do not. I I think I trust coinbase for some reason because
24:32
the guy Brian seems a little bit legitimate, and they are publicly traded. So they do report quarterly.
24:36
But,
24:37
I guess You gotta trust somebody. Right? Like, you gotta trust some things. So, for example, I was, like, dude, I'm getting all my crypto off Robinhood at the minimum because I had way back. I bought crypto on Robinhood. And then I was like, wait, I can't just send it to another wallet. It's like, no, because Robinhood actually wasn't buying crypto. You're buying a crypto derivative. I was like, what the fuck? Why did they say buy Bitcoin? Like, this is not Bitcoin. This is a Bitcoin tracking derivative. It's not even you don't even own the coins.
25:00
Then it was like, okay. Now you could after years, it was like, you could transfer it off. So I was like, oh, okay. I'll get to that when I get to it. And,
25:08
I bought a bunch of ETH on there, and I was like, I was like, you know, I'm getting it all out of there. I go hit send it to ETH wallet
25:16
It's like, oh, you've exceeded your five thousand dollar maximum. It was a five thousand dollar max. Every day, you can only do five thousand. First of all, why?
25:24
Second of all, that's bullshit. This will take forever to get all my money off this thing. It's just like yet another,
25:29
you know, yet another strike against you know, innovation. I'm the old guy on the lawn now shaking my fist saying, you know,
25:36
all all you rascals, you know, stop playing with my money. It's like And it's not, like, it's not crypto. It's not like Bitcoin did anything. It's like the people building the companies around this that are literally, like, committing fraud
25:48
or taking so much reckless risk that their that their their whole exchange goes insolvent overnight or gets hacked. That's insane. So I was like, you know what? I'm gonna self custody or, I mean, take this portion, move it over here, do this over here. You know, I have this kind of strategy. I was like, I'm gonna move more into self custody.
26:04
And,
26:05
Our buddy, Greg, was like, I was like, what do you think, man? Should I should I do this? Or he's like, well, I was like, what do I trust more? Myself?
26:13
Or
26:14
one of these exchanges.
26:15
And he's, like, he's, like, you know, I was, like, no. I said, what would feel worse if I just lose my crypto or if these guys lose my crypto. And then he's like, well, let me ask you a different question.
26:27
How many AirPods do you own? And, like, how many AirPods have you lost? He's like, if you can't keep your AirPods,
26:32
You really think for ten years, you're gonna, like, not lose your crypto. And I was like, fair point.
26:36
It sounds like, you know, okay, cycling through options of how to hold this stuff so that a, I don't lose it, but b, you know, I'm not trusting anybody. Luckily, I wasn't really that affected by FTX, but, like, you know, a lot of people were and that's extremely, you know, sad at this point. And, like, those people are, you know, they're traumatized. Right? That's, like, they got daddy issues now. They got trust issues. They're they're they are not coming back to the game and just being like, yep. I understand. Even if you intellectually understand
27:04
that, okay. This guy was literally criminal, right, or, like, you know, somebody who was, you know, doing something that wasn't that was wrong misappropriating
27:12
user funds,
27:13
even if you
27:14
acknowledge that that was one bad actor. So I do there's a lot of bad actors in crypto. And,
27:19
how the hell am I supposed to know? It's not like you get to go sit and audit the books of these companies. It's not like you get the they say they say one thing. They do another. Like, twenty four hours before I went in and solve it. The CEO comes out and says, all assets are fine. We do not lend out customer deposits. Twenty four hours later, gone and turns out this guy was lying. Well, dude, an interesting thing about San Francisco and Silicon Valley where we both kind of started our careers is
27:42
it's all based on trust. So there's like a lot of times where you,
27:47
give people money. You just wire them money without contracts. You you pump people up and make intros even though you don't entirely know. You look at a slide deck and you say, okay. This is what they're saying the numbers are. You don't say, okay. I need your, you know, I need to go into your database and I need to go check to see this. Oh, I need to check, like, I need to check that this database number is also not fudged by, you know, bots or, you know, fake downloads or whatever. Oh, I also need to check that your Pixel is not firing twice or you're not, like, hiding costs over here with your shell companies. You don't know all that stuff. And it was a tremendous amount of time to do that. This whole thing or our little world is based on this step of trust, and you and I have both kind of got started
28:28
right when a great economy was was kicking off. And,
28:32
I basically didn't ever think people were lying, and that was incredibly naive. And now I feel even though I haven't really been burnt by this, but I do feel I'm like, oh, I don't I don't really trust anyone anymore and I think that everyone might be lying just a little bit And,
28:47
it has changed my perspective on that one hundred percent. And so I used to see Robinhood as, like, oh, you're the underdog. Like, you, you know, you're on my side is like, oh, no. You're you you definitely can lose my money. I I don't I don't I don't believe you.
29:01
What about Milk Road? So for the new listeners, Milk,
29:04
started this thing called Milk Road. It's a daily email for crypto with hundreds of thousands of people. Is your engagement
29:11
skyrocketing or people just telling you to fuck off because they they hate the whole industry.
29:17
No. It's yeah. Because engagement's very high because during a crisis,
29:22
a lot of people wanna read.
29:24
I think what we will see though is over the coming months,
29:29
That's not gonna bode well for us. Right? Like, even if engagement's high right now
29:33
during, you know, the play by play craziness of what's going on, right, we're getting, you know, record open rates and shit like that. You know, what happens three months from now as people are just sort of disillusioned. The news is over. The crisis is over.
29:46
It's like, you know,
29:48
Dude, nobody's talking about Ukraine right now, the in my world, like, day to day. People aren't talking about Ukraine every day. I remember when that shit broke out. It was like, my mom, my sister. Everybody I knew was, like, glued to their phone, watching these videos, fucking getting Zelensky tattoos and being like, oh my god. I can't believe this. My heart goes out. Bought some prayers blah blah blah, and then you're in day ninety eight, and you're like,
30:08
your thoughts and prayers go back to, like, you know, I I wish this whatever, you know, just whatever your daily life was. You're, like, sort of revert. You stop caring as much in the same way. Like, I think what's gonna happen for us with the milk road is that engagement spikes during this time, but actually, it's not good for anybody in the industry when somebody breaks, like,
30:27
custom customer trust gets shaken this badly, that sets it back, like, potential years.
30:33
Oh, yeah. The I mean, It it's not a question. Is is it setback by years? It's it's it's just gonna ruin it. I mean, like, that that's how big this is in my in my mind.
30:43
Yeah. And I I think that one's probably not if it was good, like, if crypto's gonna fail, I don't think it's gonna fail because of this. Like, we have seen actually before the number one exchange go down before. It's just like as the industry grows,
30:56
disasters
30:57
cost a lot more money, and they affect a lot more people. But, like, we've actually seen literally this disaster before with Mount God
31:03
there's that Netflix documentary I've talked about on the pod about a Canadian exchange that was literally doing this. You would go in. It was like same thing. Guys, boy genius, have
31:12
loves him, media loves him, starts this exchange, becomes the biggest one in Canada.
31:16
Turns out there was literally never anything in the deposit. Like, you would click buy Bitcoin. You would send him the money. You would never buy Bitcoin. He would just show the number in your, on your computer screen. You would, yeah, you got ten. And, he would just take the money, go do whatever he wanted with it. And he was literally just, like, a criminal. He was lying. And, like And he faked his own death. Then he mysteriously died or faked his own death. And, you know, Sam Bank mefreeze tweeting out one letter at a time here is, you know, who knows what's what's what's going on with this guy too. So, like, we've literally seen this exact disaster before but it's higher profile. It's louder. It affects more people. And now instead of losing millions, tens of millions, hundreds of millions. Now it's billions that we're playing with that that got lost here. I think it's definitely bad, but I don't think this is, like, the death blow to crypto. I think you've it's, like, same thing with startups. Like, startups don't usually die due to competition.
32:02
You don't you you don't die because you got hunted. You died because you starved. And I think if it happens for if crypto dies, it's gonna be for the same reason. It's gonna die not because FTX blew up and then people just all gave up and, you know, decided I don't trust this thing ever again, forever and ever and ever and everybody decided that. It's that really the the use case and the utility
32:21
wasn't strong enough to draw people in continually over time.
32:25
And, like, maybe, you know, The use case just wasn't big enough or it wasn't strong enough. There wasn't product market fit. So I think startups and and in this case crypto, it'll die if it dies of starvation, not of competition.
32:36
You know who's one of the big winners here is Martin Screlli. So basically Martin Screlli, pharma bro, went to jail for a couple years for
32:44
scamming his farm farm pharmacy company or something like that, pharmaceutical company or something like that, you know, finance guy, but very smart. I think a very smart guy. And he has a sub stack now that is incredibly interesting. And he's been doing Twitter spaces where he's been, like, commenting on this. And he's like, you know,
33:01
jail's not that bad. Like, you know, like he's saying all this funny stuff and he wrote in his sub stack this morning that he predicts
33:08
that Sam Bankman Freed is going to get life in prison. And I thought that that was an incredibly interesting prediction.
33:15
You know, Bernie Madoff got you know, hundreds of years.
33:19
There's this other,
33:20
ponzi scheme guy that I was reading about based out of Texas who also got like a hundred and fifty years. And so it's not crazy that that could happen. You know, people who commit these hundreds of millions and billions of dollars upon a ponzi schemes, they get life in prison. Which is kind of crazy that you can get life in prison for a nonviolent crime, but,
33:39
his prediction is that he's gonna go to prison forever. So the enron guy, enron got twenty four years as his sentence.
33:46
Let's see. Bernie made off.
33:49
Well, he Bernie died in prison. You know, he got sentenced when he was in the seventies, but I think he got hundreds of years. Hundred fifty years was like the,
33:55
you know, the the the headline number And then I think the one of the another big ponzi soon guy, I think I believe his last name was Sanford, Mark Sanford, I believe. He,
34:04
at age sixty something, got a hundred and fifty years. So it's you know, regardless of when you get that hundred fifty years, it's a life sentence. And so, like, it it doesn't believe it doesn't appear that this is literally a Ponzi's team. A Ponzi team works in a specific way. Like, I think Madeoff basically would, like, he, like, had all the money in, like, one checking account. Did you know this? He had, like, a billion dollars in a Chase account. It was just, like, whenever somebody requested, he would pay them out out of that, and and, you know, show these great returns, whatever. But, in this case, basically,
34:31
the the effects the same here, you know, like someone he defrotted people to of billions and billions of dollars. Exactly.
34:39
And not only that, but
34:41
the interest, you know, Bernie made off. I don't know if you know this, know this, but do you know that he was the head of the SCC for a minute? Of the security exchange. Yeah. He was that or it was either that or Nasdaq. I think I think he was the head of the SCC, and he had and so he was like a big deal, you know, And so, so that was like, you know, bold on his part, but SBF did this in a even bolder way because he was mainstream
35:04
you know, he owned or they they had the naming rights to the Miami heat and they had commercials
35:09
with
35:10
Tom Brady. And so to me, it's if I'm a judge, I'm like, dude, you're even you're you're rubbing it in all of our faces. This is more egregious than Bernie Madoff who was a little bit more quiet about it. You're just, like, taunting me while you're stealing.
35:22
So, of course, I'm gonna, like, get you as hard as I possibly can.
35:27
Right. Yeah. Yeah. It's
35:29
it's bad. I mean, it's very, very visible,
35:32
very, very painful,
35:33
very, like, all day. I mean, just the the gall of people. I mean, guy is a real motherfucker for what it is. That's like a crazy
35:40
crazy thing to do.
35:42
And, you know, there's like I could see one version of it which is basically the there's one version of it, which is he
35:51
believed that this would Like, he wasn't trying to steal people's money.
35:56
He was, like, you know what? Like, Alameda
35:59
like, basically what people think is that Alameda, when Luna blew up,
36:03
Alameda lost a bunch of money. And in order to save Alameda from having to, like, liquidate everywhere,
36:08
he's like, okay. Let me just loan you this money.
36:12
You will make it back because you're good and then I'll, like, make it all good in the end. Nobody would no harm, no foul.
36:19
I know I shouldn't do this. He didn't tell anybody about this. That's like one version of reality that could exist. There is some evidence against that. But, like,
36:26
it's hard to know, you know, we're talking about, like, autism capital as source. Right? Because it's hard to know if this evidence is like anybody just, like, making a screenshot of whatever. You know, like, it's hard to know at this point.
36:37
So
36:39
You know, so so basically there's one version of reality that's that,
36:42
which is he got stuck in a in a in a in a spot where he was gonna lose a bunch of money and was gonna go under. It was gonna be very public and bad. And he tried to cover it up, and he kinda panicked. He made a terrible decision, and he did something that was wrong and illegal. And,
36:56
against the terms of service at least for for FTX.
36:58
And
37:00
but he he intended to, like, make it all right. And then there's another version which was As of now, that does not seem like a very likely scenario.
37:08
And what part makes what what evidence makes you say that?
37:11
Like, it was, like,
37:13
you know, that people were saying that, like, he was he's allegedly none of this has been proven, that he's been wiring himself for five hundred million dollars
37:22
and that coincidentally,
37:23
the FTX has been hacked,
37:26
things like the, like, I I I I don't I don't feel as though that's that is getting to be the outcome. Yeah. So let's say, whatever. There's some probability that that that's what happened. And there's another probability that more egregious possibility is, like, basically, he's, like,
37:40
screw everybody.
37:41
We're gonna take the money. We're gonna funnel it over here. I'm gonna grease you know, he lives in the Bahamas. He's like, I'm gonna grease all the politicians here. I'm gonna grease the politicians in the United States, be the second biggest donor to Biden,
37:52
and I'm gonna, you know, go to there's, like, this crazy stuff where, like, his the girl who was running Alameda, her dad was, like, worked with Gary Gensler, and who's, like, the SEC chair, and, like, that's why SB and Gensler kept meeting. And, like, we're about to pass the bill that was gonna be very bad for d five, but very good for FTX.
38:09
And it was, like, all this, like, you know, game to basically, like, lock in this, like, money machine,
38:15
that he was gonna, you know, continue to use for his own benefit, and Alameda was, like, abusing the information that they had front running the trade. There's, like, the, like, everything was evil, and then there's, like, the
38:26
slippery slope type thing. Like, if you watch the Theranos documentary, for example,
38:32
I shouldn't say documentary. Like, go the theranos fucking movie, you know, whatever, the the show.
38:39
They make it look in that. Like, what actually happens is
38:44
She's wants to do something great. She's sort of delusional about her own abilities,
38:48
thinks that I'm an entrepreneur. I could prove everybody wrong.
38:52
Thinks that the technology will work, thinks that she's buying time to fake it till you make it to get it to work. And then at some point, gets so trapped in the lie that she just goes all in on the lie because at that point, like, her entire image, ego company
39:04
fortune
39:05
is based on this working, and she's like,
39:08
you know, eventually starts just, you know,
39:10
actually lying and committing crimes. And so, like, that that became, like but that wasn't the intention day one. It was like, I'm gonna do the scam. I'm gonna scam everybody. And so I think that's the the only question here, but in regardless, the result is the same. Scam happened, whether he intended to do the scam from day one or
39:27
halfway through got in a in a spot panicked and then started to lie and started to to to commit these,
39:33
you know, sort of I don't know if I should call him crimes, but, you know, do what he did. To add to the story, do you know who this kid's parents are?
39:42
Yeah. They're like ethics teachers at Stanford.
39:44
Dude,
39:45
they teach. They, of course, they are. They're they're they're they're both
39:51
professors of law at Stanford law school. I I think they also, like, taught at Yale. I mean, so they're supposed to be, like No. But they and also literally teach ethics.
40:00
Yeah.
40:01
In relation to to law, from a legal perspective, I believe. And they,
40:05
the dad, I think Joseph is his name, he is involved in FTX where he like helped them raise raise some money. So
40:12
if this guy
40:13
is
40:15
full on lying criminal,
40:17
crazy, man. He's screw the I mean, screwing people out of money is is is bad.
40:22
Also screwing your family and your parents is the worst.
40:26
Right. So, like, the this whole entire story,
40:30
you know, it hurts a lot of people. But in terms of just, like, story arc and soap opera,
40:35
It is just the best. It is the best.
40:39
Are you not entertained?
40:41
Because if nothing else is entertaining.
40:44
Did I even like crypto? You know, I'm I've I've been like the crypto. What is your prediction, Sam? Let's put it on the record here. What is your prediction,
40:50
for crypto? Not not FTX somebody has pretty clear what kind of know the details exactly what happened, but we know the result. For crypto, what do you think is the,
40:58
do you think this all just goes to zero? Do you think this sort of peters out for a long time? Do you think this rises again. What is your prediction?
41:05
I think, keep in mind, my perspective here is only emotional. So and and, basically, I learned from crypto just from talking about you. So that I've learned about crypto, it's been live on this podcast.
41:16
So I would say I'm not incredibly educated.
41:18
I think that it's gonna peter out for the next five to ten years. I think that NFTs are gonna go to zero. I think that all the alt coins, basically Ethereum and Bitcoin are the only ones that are gonna ever have the chance of being interesting.
41:32
Virtually all of them go out of business. I think that,
41:36
coinbase stays in business and actually might grow because people are like, okay, fine. You're only place that I can trust.
41:43
I think that, like, Luna and all this other stuff, I that one's already dead, but, like, all these other, like, other one hundred percent go to zero and never work. And I think that this guy gets sentenced to twenty five to fifty years in prison.
41:58
Alright.
41:59
There's the prediction. What do you think?
42:04
I predict
42:07
Bad news bears for the next,
42:10
couple years is my guess.
42:13
I don't know the time scale there, but I'm just gonna guess. Couple of years, crypto winter. Mean, I think that's probably
42:19
true for the entire economy right now, but I think particularly worse for crypto.
42:24
But I do think that in the end crypto is real and is gonna work. And, you know, I know that's kinda sort of maybe now unpopular. Maybe it was always unpopular. I'm not sure. Don't really pay too much attention to that, but,
42:36
yeah, I do think Bitcoin, Ethereum, and then replacements
42:39
to some of the other use cases that that were built. Are going to rise. And I I think some of the things that are bulletproof, I think this guy goes down. I think coin based as well. I think that most of the current coins that are completely overvalued go to zero, but I do think that Bitcoin Ethereum are here to stay. And I think that they won't be the only two forever. I think there will be new ones I come and and do well.
43:00
In the future. But I think it's, I also think It's another down cycle.
43:03
Anyone who raised money and they had the word web three in their deck, I think
43:08
virtually one hundred percent of them are gonna fail and not work.
43:13
Not necessarily because they are bad entrepreneurs
43:16
or because their product are stupid, although I do think that is the case in the vast majority of them.
43:22
I think that they're just gonna be laughed out of, like, existence and just be like, dude, we're never working with you. Like, this is Like, in both consumers? Not because they're ugly, which they are. Not because they're dumb. Certainly so.
43:35
But because these are get laugh out the room. Yeah. Yeah. Is is that because they're ugly? Is that because they're dumb? It's just because they're pathetic.
43:44
I think that's gonna happen.
43:46
Not all, but but close to all. Yeah. Well, that's true. I think for most startups. Alright. I gotta go. He's at my door to keep knocking. Alright. That's the pod.
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