00:07

Luck and risk are two of the most important words for anybody who wants to be great. But they kind of I think for most people, feel like it's something that's outside of your control. Right? Lux is this magical thing that either happens to you or it doesn't. Or,

Luck and risk are two of the most important words for anybody who wants to be great. But they kind of I think for most people, feel like it's something that's outside of your control. Right? Lux is this magical thing that either happens to you or it doesn't. Or,

00:20

risk is this thing that you either get screwed by or you don't.

risk is this thing that you either get screwed by or you don't.

00:23

And don't think that's true. I think there's a lot more to risk and luck than most people recognize. It's the same way that, I think eskimos have like forty or fifty words for snow.

And don't think that's true. I think there's a lot more to risk and luck than most people recognize. It's the same way that, I think eskimos have like forty or fifty words for snow.

00:34

Right? When we see something just falling from the sky that's white and fluffy, we just think that snow, whereas they have forty or fifty different words to describe the different types of snow as you would. If you lived in an extremely snowy environment, you would develop that vocabulary.

Right? When we see something just falling from the sky that's white and fluffy, we just think that snow, whereas they have forty or fifty different words to describe the different types of snow as you would. If you lived in an extremely snowy environment, you would develop that vocabulary.

00:47

And so similarly for an entrepreneur who is going in an environment

And so similarly for an entrepreneur who is going in an environment

00:51

of trying to make great success happen. Maybe we need some nuance, some differentiation between the different types of luck. The different flavors of risk. And so that's what I'm gonna tell you today. These are the four flavors of luck and the four flavors of risk. Let's start with luck.

of trying to make great success happen. Maybe we need some nuance, some differentiation between the different types of luck. The different flavors of risk. And so that's what I'm gonna tell you today. These are the four flavors of luck and the four flavors of risk. Let's start with luck.

01:06

So this I got from,

So this I got from,

01:08

Mark Anderson back in the day. He had a blog that he used to keep up. It's down now.

Mark Anderson back in the day. He had a blog that he used to keep up. It's down now.

01:13

There's an archive of it up online somewhere called PM archive.

There's an archive of it up online somewhere called PM archive.

01:16

And I still remember reading this post, like, you know, ten years ago. And it was about the four different types of luck. I think he originally read it in some book. And,

And I still remember reading this post, like, you know, ten years ago. And it was about the four different types of luck. I think he originally read it in some book. And,

01:25

the levels of luck are as follows. Level one is called blind luck. You just sit around, you get struck by lightning.

the levels of luck are as follows. Level one is called blind luck. You just sit around, you get struck by lightning.

01:32

And, you know, you didn't do anything. You just happened to be you, and, it's not something you can count on either. Right? So this is blind luck. And, you know, for me, I was just born with the use of my my limbs and and I was born healthy. I was born in the right country.

And, you know, you didn't do anything. You just happened to be you, and, it's not something you can count on either. Right? So this is blind luck. And, you know, for me, I was just born with the use of my my limbs and and I was born healthy. I was born in the right country.

01:49

you know, I remember one time my cousin gave me a bunch of raffle tickets that he had bought. He gave it he gave it to all of our cousins and, I ended up winning this dali painting

you know, I remember one time my cousin gave me a bunch of raffle tickets that he had bought. He gave it he gave it to all of our cousins and, I ended up winning this dali painting

01:58

out of, out of the raffle. I didn't, I literally didn't do anything. I just sat there. He handed me a ticket. My ticket happened to win. And so,

out of, out of the raffle. I didn't, I literally didn't do anything. I just sat there. He handed me a ticket. My ticket happened to win. And so,

02:05

that's an example of blind luck. That's level one. Okay. Can't do much with that because it's sort of, just either gonna happen or

that's an example of blind luck. That's level one. Okay. Can't do much with that because it's sort of, just either gonna happen or

02:13

The next one, you can increase the odds of of luck in your favor by,

The next one, you can increase the odds of of luck in your favor by,

02:17

going to level two. Level two is what the the phrase around Fortun favors the bold.

going to level two. Level two is what the the phrase around Fortun favors the bold.

02:23

And it's the same as the the one above. It's sort of a lucky chance, but you increase the odds of it happening by adding motion or action to the mix. So you're doing a bunch of stuff. You're running around, you know, if the first one is you're standing in place and lightning strikes you, this one, you're running around all over the place, kicking up dust stirring of the pot and something happens as a result of your motion. Your motion increased

And it's the same as the the one above. It's sort of a lucky chance, but you increase the odds of it happening by adding motion or action to the mix. So you're doing a bunch of stuff. You're running around, you know, if the first one is you're standing in place and lightning strikes you, this one, you're running around all over the place, kicking up dust stirring of the pot and something happens as a result of your motion. Your motion increased

02:45

the surface area you were covering where you might happen to get lucky. And so this is a chance encounter. Right? Maybe you're just out and about. And in doing so, you bump into somebody who's really interesting and opens up some opportunity for you. And, there's a phrase, there's a quote that I like, which is, you know, I've never heard of someone stumbling onto something good while sitting down. And this just emphasizes the importance of simply taking a bunch of action,

the surface area you were covering where you might happen to get lucky. And so this is a chance encounter. Right? Maybe you're just out and about. And in doing so, you bump into somebody who's really interesting and opens up some opportunity for you. And, there's a phrase, there's a quote that I like, which is, you know, I've never heard of someone stumbling onto something good while sitting down. And this just emphasizes the importance of simply taking a bunch of action,

03:07

of of being out there, of of having some motion and, and carrying with you some good vibes so that good things happen during the during the way. So that's level two,

of of being out there, of of having some motion and, and carrying with you some good vibes so that good things happen during the during the way. So that's level two,

03:15

motion, crea, you know, fortune favors the bold.

motion, crea, you know, fortune favors the bold.

03:18

Level three. This is where it starts to get interesting.

Level three. This is where it starts to get interesting.

03:21

This is chance favors the prepared mind.

This is chance favors the prepared mind.

03:24

Right? So this is where

Right? So this is where

03:26

You notice that something lucky has happened where other people may not have noticed.

You notice that something lucky has happened where other people may not have noticed.

03:30

And it is your years of preparation of looking at things to even understand this. So any investor knows this. Right? You look at a hundred deals. It's not because all a hundred are gonna be good. It's so that when that hundred and first deal comes, that really has killer metrics you're able to recognize that the, that deal is unique, that that price is a fantastic price. So these metrics are off the charts because you have a benchmark of what normal looks like. This also happens in science. I mean, there's an amazing story about the the discovery of penicillin. Right? This drug that has saved millions and millions of lives, in the course of history. Well, the way it was discovered was,

And it is your years of preparation of looking at things to even understand this. So any investor knows this. Right? You look at a hundred deals. It's not because all a hundred are gonna be good. It's so that when that hundred and first deal comes, that really has killer metrics you're able to recognize that the, that deal is unique, that that price is a fantastic price. So these metrics are off the charts because you have a benchmark of what normal looks like. This also happens in science. I mean, there's an amazing story about the the discovery of penicillin. Right? This drug that has saved millions and millions of lives, in the course of history. Well, the way it was discovered was,

04:04

the scientist who was, who was studying, he, just noticed that some mold had fallen on his petri dish. And his accident. Right? So that was not in his he was not the result of his action, but he was he had a prepared mind. He noticed that around the mold in the petri dish, no bacteria was growing.

the scientist who was, who was studying, he, just noticed that some mold had fallen on his petri dish. And his accident. Right? So that was not in his he was not the result of his action, but he was he had a prepared mind. He noticed that around the mold in the petri dish, no bacteria was growing.

04:22

He started to wonder, maybe there's something about this mold that kills bacteria.

He started to wonder, maybe there's something about this mold that kills bacteria.

04:28

And he wrote that down. He tried to convince others of it. And, nobody cared. No no none of his peers cared and then, you know, ten years go by. Before somebody else picks up this paper and says,

And he wrote that down. He tried to convince others of it. And, nobody cared. No no none of his peers cared and then, you know, ten years go by. Before somebody else picks up this paper and says,

04:38

that's weird that this sort of, the staff bacteria

that's weird that this sort of, the staff bacteria

04:42

was not growing around this mold. Does mold seem to kill staff back I wonder if we could go back and revisit that. And then they tried to try to actually revisit it. So they had the prepared mind to read that paper and notice,

was not growing around this mold. Does mold seem to kill staff back I wonder if we could go back and revisit that. And then they tried to try to actually revisit it. So they had the prepared mind to read that paper and notice,

04:54

There's something interesting there. And so that is luck favoring the prepared mind.

There's something interesting there. And so that is luck favoring the prepared mind.

05:00

The last one, the level four luck is

The last one, the level four luck is

05:03

luck finds you.

luck finds you.

05:05

So this is reputational luck. You've heard me on this podcast say before that my goal with this podcast

So this is reputational luck. You've heard me on this podcast say before that my goal with this podcast

05:10

is not to become well known. Alright. I'm not trying to be famous. I'm trying to be known well. Meaning, I just try to put my brain and my the things I'm most into out there on blast so that people who are like minded will come find me. People who are building, you know, startups in that space will come find me and I can invest them. People who are, you know, using a product that they know that I love, they'll share it with me. Right? That's the value that I get back out of this because I'm well known. My reputation brings me some luck And so, the example, I think Naval gives of this. He says, imagine you are known as the best deep sea scuba diver in the world. Right? You are amazing at deep sea dives. You're sitting on your couch one day. You're not doing anything, and the phone rings and somebody called you and says, we've discovered a treasure

is not to become well known. Alright. I'm not trying to be famous. I'm trying to be known well. Meaning, I just try to put my brain and my the things I'm most into out there on blast so that people who are like minded will come find me. People who are building, you know, startups in that space will come find me and I can invest them. People who are, you know, using a product that they know that I love, they'll share it with me. Right? That's the value that I get back out of this because I'm well known. My reputation brings me some luck And so, the example, I think Naval gives of this. He says, imagine you are known as the best deep sea scuba diver in the world. Right? You are amazing at deep sea dives. You're sitting on your couch one day. You're not doing anything, and the phone rings and somebody called you and says, we've discovered a treasure

05:54

off the coast of India buried deep down below. Will you come help us retrieve it and you get to share, you know, whatever, twenty five percent,

off the coast of India buried deep down below. Will you come help us retrieve it and you get to share, you know, whatever, twenty five percent,

06:02

of whatever we find? So now you

of whatever we find? So now you

06:05

your reputation has caused you to find a treasure. Right? Lux has found you. Your reputation of being a great person at doing x will cause people to come find you. And so,

your reputation has caused you to find a treasure. Right? Lux has found you. Your reputation of being a great person at doing x will cause people to come find you. And so,

06:15

you know, we just did a podcast with Kevin Rose, and he talked about this with Twitter. He had the prepared mind

you know, we just did a podcast with Kevin Rose, and he talked about this with Twitter. He had the prepared mind

06:21

to notice that Twitter was gonna be a big deal. And he's very humbled. Like, other investments, he says, you know, I don't know. You just I just wrote the check. I I liked the person. It turned out well. But for Twitter, I said, did you know it was the it's gonna be a big of winter. And he goes, I thought it was the next big thing. He goes, because I had seen

to notice that Twitter was gonna be a big deal. And he's very humbled. Like, other investments, he says, you know, I don't know. You just I just wrote the check. I I liked the person. It turned out well. But for Twitter, I said, did you know it was the it's gonna be a big of winter. And he goes, I thought it was the next big thing. He goes, because I had seen

06:37

blank blank blank. I was using it and I noticed, man, this thing has really given me this feeling. Imagine, I'm just a little tech celebrity. Imagine if real celebrities got a hold of this. This is gonna crazy. And, like, he noticed that Facebook

blank blank blank. I was using it and I noticed, man, this thing has really given me this feeling. Imagine, I'm just a little tech celebrity. Imagine if real celebrities got a hold of this. This is gonna crazy. And, like, he noticed that Facebook

06:49

and all the social networks before this were all based on this idea of a friend where I had to request to follow you and you had accept it in order for me to see your content. And that Twitter, this new thing that everybody else was making fun of, had had one new feature, which was It was one directional. I could just follow you and you didn't have to give me approval. And he goes, wow, that's gonna be amazing for celebrities. So that was luck, you know, the prepared mind. He then took action. He reaches out to Eve, and he says, I'd love to invest.

and all the social networks before this were all based on this idea of a friend where I had to request to follow you and you had accept it in order for me to see your content. And that Twitter, this new thing that everybody else was making fun of, had had one new feature, which was It was one directional. I could just follow you and you didn't have to give me approval. And he goes, wow, that's gonna be amazing for celebrities. So that was luck, you know, the prepared mind. He then took action. He reaches out to Eve, and he says, I'd love to invest.

07:15

Oh, sorry. The round is closed.

Oh, sorry. The round is closed.

07:17

Sorry about that. So he's turned away.

Sorry about that. So he's turned away.

07:19

But this is where his reputation allowed him to get lucky. A couple weeks later, m calls back and says, hey,

But this is where his reputation allowed him to get lucky. A couple weeks later, m calls back and says, hey,

07:26

you about investing. Right? You know, we have this engineer who's leaving. He wants to sell some of his shares.

you about investing. Right? You know, we have this engineer who's leaving. He wants to sell some of his shares.

07:30

We can, you know, you could buy his if you want. Right? I'll let you in. Because it's you, because I love I like you. I like the way you are. I I think you got you have a good eye for product. You're really active on Twitter.

We can, you know, you could buy his if you want. Right? I'll let you in. Because it's you, because I love I like you. I like the way you are. I I think you got you have a good eye for product. You're really active on Twitter.

07:40

And I know you really believe in this. You've made that well known. Well, here you go. Here's your opportunity. And that twenty five thousand dollars turns into, you know, hundred million dollar plus pay day. That's luck finding you.

And I know you really believe in this. You've made that well known. Well, here you go. Here's your opportunity. And that twenty five thousand dollars turns into, you know, hundred million dollar plus pay day. That's luck finding you.

07:57

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See, most CRMs are a cobbled together mess, but HubSpot is easy to adopt and actually looks gorgeous. Think I love our new CRM. Our software is the best. HubSpot,

08:09

So those are the four levels of luck. Now let's talk about the four levels of risk. The four these are not levels. These are more flavors of risk. So The first one, the first risk, but or I'll put it differently.

So those are the four levels of luck. Now let's talk about the four levels of risk. The four these are not levels. These are more flavors of risk. So The first one, the first risk, but or I'll put it differently.

08:21

People think the big risk is you go and do something crazy. Right? I'm gonna go jump out of a plane, skydiving. I'm gonna go invest all my money into crypto. Right?

People think the big risk is you go and do something crazy. Right? I'm gonna go jump out of a plane, skydiving. I'm gonna go invest all my money into crypto. Right?

08:31

Those are obvious risks.

Those are obvious risks.

08:33

But because they're obvious risk, people don't always take them, or they take a lot of precaution with it. So,

But because they're obvious risk, people don't always take them, or they take a lot of precaution with it. So,

08:40

most people don't go skydiving. They say, that's that sounds risky, so I'm not gonna do it. And even the people who do, they go with an instructor who's done thousands of things before, and they make sure that the place has good reviews, and that is good track record, and they say, okay, great. I'll jump out of this with a parachute with a with a professional. So they they do things to mitigate risk. So think, you know, same thing with crypto. Oh, You're investing crypto, but you're only investing one percent, five percent, ten percent, some small ish percent of your net worth into this risky thing because it was obviously risky.

most people don't go skydiving. They say, that's that sounds risky, so I'm not gonna do it. And even the people who do, they go with an instructor who's done thousands of things before, and they make sure that the place has good reviews, and that is good track record, and they say, okay, great. I'll jump out of this with a parachute with a with a professional. So they they do things to mitigate risk. So think, you know, same thing with crypto. Oh, You're investing crypto, but you're only investing one percent, five percent, ten percent, some small ish percent of your net worth into this risky thing because it was obviously risky.

09:10

So the things that are obviously risky don't actually trip you up. It's the things that are not obviously risky. So an example of that would be,

So the things that are obviously risky don't actually trip you up. It's the things that are not obviously risky. So an example of that would be,

09:18

Everybody before, you know, two started two thousand eight, generally thought that mortgages and the housing market was a pretty safe industry to bed in. To invest in, and that's why if you ever watch the big short, you know, all these mortgages were highly rated,

Everybody before, you know, two started two thousand eight, generally thought that mortgages and the housing market was a pretty safe industry to bed in. To invest in, and that's why if you ever watch the big short, you know, all these mortgages were highly rated,

09:32

debt And in actuality, they were much riskier than people realized. And that's what caused the global financial crisis was because there was this huge there was this risk that people did not identify as risky.

debt And in actuality, they were much riskier than people realized. And that's what caused the global financial crisis was because there was this huge there was this risk that people did not identify as risky.

09:44

They thought it was safe, but actually it was risky.

They thought it was safe, but actually it was risky.

09:47

And they, therefore,

And they, therefore,

09:49

relied too much on it, took out too much leverage, blah, blah, blah, and then you get disasters. And so that's the first thing to recognize about risk is risk is not just the things you think about. So here's some of the hidden types of risk or different flavors that you should think about. The first one is mediocrity.

relied too much on it, took out too much leverage, blah, blah, blah, and then you get disasters. And so that's the first thing to recognize about risk is risk is not just the things you think about. So here's some of the hidden types of risk or different flavors that you should think about. The first one is mediocrity.

10:05

when most people go into a job or a business that they wanna start, they think that their risk is failure.

when most people go into a job or a business that they wanna start, they think that their risk is failure.

10:11

That I'll try this, and it's gonna totally crash and burn. And in actuality, at least for most people in America,

That I'll try this, and it's gonna totally crash and burn. And in actuality, at least for most people in America,

10:17

that's not that painful of a risk. You waste a little bit of time.

that's not that painful of a risk. You waste a little bit of time.

10:21

But it failed. It, you know, it crashed and burned and you can move on and you learned a lesson and you have a story to tell and you might have met some people along the way. You've built some skills. And so you actually don't take that much risk doing it. And you generally will, you know, not put too much money into something at that stage.

But it failed. It, you know, it crashed and burned and you can move on and you learned a lesson and you have a story to tell and you might have met some people along the way. You've built some skills. And so you actually don't take that much risk doing it. And you generally will, you know, not put too much money into something at that stage.

10:36

So That's one version of a failing with a, let's say, a startup or a job. But the other version that I think is much more sneaky and much more p much plagues many more people is mediocrity.

So That's one version of a failing with a, let's say, a startup or a job. But the other version that I think is much more sneaky and much more p much plagues many more people is mediocrity.

10:46

Which is the risk of having something that's just okay. It's not bad enough to obviously fail nor is it good enough to be amazing? And so the risk is that you're wasting your most valuable asset, your time on something that is not great. And so if you listen to this podcast, you're the type person that wants greatness out of your life, then What the biggest risk to you is mediocrity,

Which is the risk of having something that's just okay. It's not bad enough to obviously fail nor is it good enough to be amazing? And so the risk is that you're wasting your most valuable asset, your time on something that is not great. And so if you listen to this podcast, you're the type person that wants greatness out of your life, then What the biggest risk to you is mediocrity,

11:05

because failing is fine. You'll just try another thing. You'll try something else. But something that's just alright, it's not great. But not bad enough to fail is gonna deprive you of your most valuable asset your time. So mediocrity is the first flavor of risk to identify.

because failing is fine. You'll just try another thing. You'll try something else. But something that's just alright, it's not great. But not bad enough to fail is gonna deprive you of your most valuable asset your time. So mediocrity is the first flavor of risk to identify.

11:19

In what way are you just settling for a bad relationship,

In what way are you just settling for a bad relationship,

11:23

or a just okay relationship, a just okay job, a just okay level of traction at your startup? That is one risk. The next one,

or a just okay relationship, a just okay job, a just okay level of traction at your startup? That is one risk. The next one,

11:31

safety.

safety.

11:32

Safety is a risk. Okay. How is safety risk? Well, there's a risk in not taking enough risk. So you gotta ask yourself.

Safety is a risk. Okay. How is safety risk? Well, there's a risk in not taking enough risk. So you gotta ask yourself.

11:39

I have a dream. I have an ambition. I have a goal that I'm trying to get myself to.

I have a dream. I have an ambition. I have a goal that I'm trying to get myself to.

11:43

If I keep doing things the way that I am currently doing them, right, in my comfort zone where I am safe, I'm not taking any risk right now. Is it going to lead to my dream? Right? Am I on path? Am I on track? Am I is my trajectory taking me to where I'm trying to go? Cause if not,

If I keep doing things the way that I am currently doing them, right, in my comfort zone where I am safe, I'm not taking any risk right now. Is it going to lead to my dream? Right? Am I on path? Am I on track? Am I is my trajectory taking me to where I'm trying to go? Cause if not,

12:00

then the safety you have now is actually putting your dream at risk, your goal at risk. So people usually think am I putting myself currently at risk? But what you wanna think about is am I putting my dream at risk? Am I putting my future success at risk by playing it safe now? Okay. So that's the second one. Playing it too safe.

then the safety you have now is actually putting your dream at risk, your goal at risk. So people usually think am I putting myself currently at risk? But what you wanna think about is am I putting my dream at risk? Am I putting my future success at risk by playing it safe now? Okay. So that's the second one. Playing it too safe.

12:18

The third risk is the eyes wide shut risk. That's the one I talked about with the mortgages. Right?

The third risk is the eyes wide shut risk. That's the one I talked about with the mortgages. Right?

12:23

It's one thing when you go in eyes wide open, you say, oh, I'm doing this thing, but it's risky. So, therefore, I'm not gonna bet it all, and I'm gonna take some precautions.

It's one thing when you go in eyes wide open, you say, oh, I'm doing this thing, but it's risky. So, therefore, I'm not gonna bet it all, and I'm gonna take some precautions.

12:32

That's eyes wide open. But what about eyes wide shut? What happens if you, you think something is safe, but it's not? You trust the wrong person, and you bet it all. Or you think that housing is safe and so you're super levered up.

That's eyes wide open. But what about eyes wide shut? What happens if you, you think something is safe, but it's not? You trust the wrong person, and you bet it all. Or you think that housing is safe and so you're super levered up.

12:44

You think that this is too big to fail, but in fact it is not. And so,

You think that this is too big to fail, but in fact it is not. And so,

12:49

eyes wide shut wrist. You wanna ask yourself, what am I assuming is safe

eyes wide shut wrist. You wanna ask yourself, what am I assuming is safe

12:54

that may not actually be safe.

that may not actually be safe.

12:57

The last one,

The last one,

12:58

is market risk versus execution risk versus technical risk. These are like the EskM was having fifty words for snow. There are many different types of risk in business. So market risk is trying to figure out, will does anyone even want this? At my start my previous start up, my, you know, the the studio I worked at, monkey inferno,

is market risk versus execution risk versus technical risk. These are like the EskM was having fifty words for snow. There are many different types of risk in business. So market risk is trying to figure out, will does anyone even want this? At my start my previous start up, my, you know, the the studio I worked at, monkey inferno,

13:15

We were building we had every resource available. We had all the money we wanted. We had team of engineers that were super smart, freedom to work on whatever we wanted.

We were building we had every resource available. We had all the money we wanted. We had team of engineers that were super smart, freedom to work on whatever we wanted.

13:23

But the b boundary was we gotta work on something in consumer,

But the b boundary was we gotta work on something in consumer,

13:26

and it shifted towards social. And when you try to build the next social app, you're taking on massive amounts of market risk. Does anybody want your thing? Is this gonna be the next Twitter, the next Snapchat, etcetera? That was massive market risk.

and it shifted towards social. And when you try to build the next social app, you're taking on massive amounts of market risk. Does anybody want your thing? Is this gonna be the next Twitter, the next Snapchat, etcetera? That was massive market risk.

13:38

You know, it didn't matter that we had a killer team or we could build a killer product.

You know, it didn't matter that we had a killer team or we could build a killer product.

13:42

Because market risk means if people don't actually want your well made app, it multiplies it by zero.

Because market risk means if people don't actually want your well made app, it multiplies it by zero.

13:49

the next thing is then you take friends like,

the next thing is then you take friends like,

13:52

enduring ventures or Cody Sanchez and people who buy cash flowing businesses. That's fantastic.

enduring ventures or Cody Sanchez and people who buy cash flowing businesses. That's fantastic.

13:57

They're not taking market risk. The market has already proven that they want that business, they want that product. It's already cash flowing. So they take executional risk. They pay a price, maybe three, four, five times

They're not taking market risk. The market has already proven that they want that business, they want that product. It's already cash flowing. So they take executional risk. They pay a price, maybe three, four, five times

14:07

earnings, and they're taking executional risk that can I improve the business? Can I improve through executional efficiencies

earnings, and they're taking executional risk that can I improve the business? Can I improve through executional efficiencies

14:14

or or growing, you know, growing revenue or reducing costs, can I improve this business? So they take execution risk. You know, when I buy this owner out, it's the whole thing fall over, or can we continue to execute?

or or growing, you know, growing revenue or reducing costs, can I improve this business? So they take execution risk. You know, when I buy this owner out, it's the whole thing fall over, or can we continue to execute?

14:25

So they take they don't take market risk. They take execution risk.

So they take they don't take market risk. They take execution risk.

14:28

And then you have people who are people who I invest in for my startups that often take technical risks

And then you have people who are people who I invest in for my startups that often take technical risks

14:33

So the example I give of this is a pizza making robot.

So the example I give of this is a pizza making robot.

14:37

Let's say that I'm Domino's pizza, and a startup comes to me and says, Hey, we have a robot.

Let's say that I'm Domino's pizza, and a startup comes to me and says, Hey, we have a robot.

14:42

That will replace that worker you have in the back that's sitting there. He's checking his phone, picking his nose, and he's calling in sick every fourth day. And, you know, he's the one who's supposed to take the dough, put it in the oven, put the cheese and sauce on it and, put it in the box. So here's the deal. I have a robot that will put a perfectly circular dough with the perfect thickness that your specify or add the exact amount of cheese, never waste food waste too much too much extra cheese. It'll bake it to the exact amount of time every single time It'll never call in sick. It can work twenty four seven. And,

That will replace that worker you have in the back that's sitting there. He's checking his phone, picking his nose, and he's calling in sick every fourth day. And, you know, he's the one who's supposed to take the dough, put it in the oven, put the cheese and sauce on it and, put it in the box. So here's the deal. I have a robot that will put a perfectly circular dough with the perfect thickness that your specify or add the exact amount of cheese, never waste food waste too much too much extra cheese. It'll bake it to the exact amount of time every single time It'll never call in sick. It can work twenty four seven. And,

15:11

and it'll it never complain and ask for a raise. Okay. That's this robot. So there's If you could deliver such a product, there would be essentially zero market risk.

and it'll it never complain and ask for a raise. Okay. That's this robot. So there's If you could deliver such a product, there would be essentially zero market risk.

15:22

Because, of course, Domino's would wanna replace

Because, of course, Domino's would wanna replace

15:24

more expensive labor that is harder to manage

more expensive labor that is harder to manage

15:28

with something that is cheaper and easier to manage. Of course, they would do that. So the only question is, Can you make a robot that actually delivers on that promise reliably? Right? Can you actually deliver the promise? That's technical risk. This is with a lot of bio biotech, pharmaceutical,

with something that is cheaper and easier to manage. Of course, they would do that. So the only question is, Can you make a robot that actually delivers on that promise reliably? Right? Can you actually deliver the promise? That's technical risk. This is with a lot of bio biotech, pharmaceutical,

15:43

and like, you know, you know, defense contracts, there's things like that where they're taking technical risk. Can they can they actually make a product that lives up to the spec. And so you gotta know what type of risk are you taking? So those are the four types. Mediaocrity,

and like, you know, you know, defense contracts, there's things like that where they're taking technical risk. Can they can they actually make a product that lives up to the spec. And so you gotta know what type of risk are you taking? So those are the four types. Mediaocrity,

15:57

the biggest risk of all. Safety, not taking enough risk.

the biggest risk of all. Safety, not taking enough risk.

16:01

Eyes wide shut risk. That's assuming something is safe when in actuality, it's riskier than you think. And the last one is knowing whether you're, you're attempting to take market risk execution risk or tech risk, and being, being honest with yourself about what type of risk you're taking when you go into this endeavor. The goal is not to avoid risk. It's to understand it. And then work your way around it. Alright. I think that's it. Instead of one question Friday, I did framework Friday. Let me know what you think. I'm Sean VP on Twitter. That's s h a a n v p on Twitter. And so you can find me there. Let me know what you think about it. Framework Friday is in the book. Alright. Have a good weekend.

Eyes wide shut risk. That's assuming something is safe when in actuality, it's riskier than you think. And the last one is knowing whether you're, you're attempting to take market risk execution risk or tech risk, and being, being honest with yourself about what type of risk you're taking when you go into this endeavor. The goal is not to avoid risk. It's to understand it. And then work your way around it. Alright. I think that's it. Instead of one question Friday, I did framework Friday. Let me know what you think. I'm Sean VP on Twitter. That's s h a a n v p on Twitter. And so you can find me there. Let me know what you think about it. Framework Friday is in the book. Alright. Have a good weekend.

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