00:00
I like the analogy or the the kind of the awareness that, hey, we have this giant bowl of ice cream that's melting.
00:06
That's that's your cap pile that's melting, and the heat is basically the money printer
00:10
that is, causing acid inflation. I ice cube that's melting. And I ice cube it. We have a five hundred million dollar ice cube, and it's melt thing
00:18
twenty percent a year. It'll be gone in full. So you needed to do something with that. You didn't want it to all melt away. So you decided to do this. Now a couple quick questions. One is,
00:28
this is sort of rapid fire. I've got a couple rapid fire questions for you. In twenty years from now, What do you think has generated more
00:36
value, or more income to the company, to microstrategy? Is it the operating income of microstrategy or the investment income of the Bitcoin it holds?
00:45
The investment income for sure. Okay. And then you know, to be to be very clear, what happened in March of twenty twenty,
00:52
is when the cost of capital goes to twenty five percent,
00:56
that means that every investor and all investment income every every investor generated twenty five percent more doing nothing. Right.
01:05
And every main street company that worked twenty five percent harder got nothing. Right. Right. You literally tilt the playing field so that if you don't own
01:15
if you own assets,
01:17
you're having the best year of a thirty years. And if you don't own assets, it's impossible to have a good year.
01:25
Right.
01:27
And,
01:28
and so so the second question is,
01:31
you,
01:34
as you acquire as you acquire more and more Bitcoin, is micro strategy bet? Like, do you just position the company at this point? Like, it's a Bitcoin ETF?
01:42
It's like buy this buy this Bitcoin buying in full companies. Not a Bitcoin ETF. Everybody's you're sloppy with those words. An ETF
01:50
is of a company that invests in securities,
01:54
and it tries to keep it assets under management equal to the amount of shares of ETF that it sold. It's a financial company.
02:03
An ATP
02:04
is a similar type of company that invest in commodities.
02:07
If you create, you know, if you create this Bitcoin entity that, that that equalizes assets under management equal to the shares you sell. You created a Bitcoin ETP.
02:17
We're neither of those things. We're not a finance company. We're not an ETF. We're not an ETP. We're not we're not buying or selling Bitcoin to equalize assets under management.
02:28
We're,
02:29
an operating company
02:30
that owns property.
02:32
Bitcoin is property.
02:34
And in that way, you should think of it as a company that Like, I I bought a million acres of land in Texas,
02:40
or I bought,
02:41
a million gallons of of fill in the blank, a million bushels of soybean.
02:47
You can buy any kind of property.
02:50
Right? And and you're holding it on your balance sheet.
02:54
As a company.
02:55
Right? That's what we, that's what we are. Now what's your question?
02:59
You are talking about, like, let's say the the cost of capital
03:03
being twenty five percent. Right? Because since March, that's what the S and P five hundred is on. But the the stock market goes, you know, it does go up and down in years where
03:11
you know, the market dips and and goes up, you know, the average of, you know, over time, the geometric mean is whatever seven or eight percent, something like that. So
03:20
Some would argue, okay. Yes. This year, assets inflated by that much. That doesn't mean next year, it's gonna remain at twenty five percent a year. And so you have to make some prediction. Right? And so are you
03:32
are you basically
03:33
forecasting it at twenty five percent, fifteen percent, ten percent, eight percent, and does the decision change at a certain number there.
03:41
So so gen first of all, for the decade from two thousand and ten to two thousand and twenty, it was generally about eight percent.
03:48
Like, it was it was pretty consistent.
03:50
And the single biggest driver
03:53
of cost to capital
03:54
is the rate at which the broad money supply expands.
03:59
And if you look at if you go Google m two money supply fed, you'll get a chart, and you'll see the by the way, the chart's not all over the place. The chart is very consistent seven percent slope for a decade.
04:11
It's not jerking around.
04:13
So it's not that volatile. It was very consistent monetary
04:17
policy for a decade.
04:18
Then that chart goes like this straight up twenty four percent.
04:23
So
04:24
If you, if you if you're going to make a decision as an investor,
04:28
and this is any investor, what it this this has to do this applies to all four hundred trillion dollars worth of investors
04:36
and applies to every company on earth. They all have the same exact thing they have to calculate, which is
04:42
You have to estimate the rate at which the money supply will expand each year for the next eight years.
04:49
And so that's the
04:51
If you wanna figure out the signal or or the single most important thing in the world for everyone,
04:57
but for everyone, seven point eight billion people for a hundred million companies for everyone with money on Earth or everyone that earns a salary on Earth.
05:06
This is the big idea of the podcast.
05:08
You have to estimate
05:10
the rate at which the currency is going to expand.
05:14
And if you believe
05:16
the currency is going to continue to expand
05:20
At fifteen percent a year for the next eight years, you come to one conclusion.
05:25
If you plug in ten percent, it's a different conclusion.
05:29
If it's twenty five percent, it's a different conclusion.
05:32
So,
05:33
what do I think?
05:35
I think that
05:38
fifteen percent is fifteen percent for the next eight years is reasonable.
05:45
If you're a pessimist, you could say twenty. If you're an optimist, you could say ten.
05:50
But,
05:51
the money supply is expanding
05:53
because
05:54
the Federal Reserve and the EU Central Bank are buying a trillion dollars
05:58
worth of,
06:01
bonds every year each
06:03
And it's also expanded because,
06:05
the the government of the EU and the US are running a multi trillion dollar deficit.
06:12
And it is also expanding because of trillion dollar plus stimulus.
06:16
And there's no reason to think that's gonna change in the next four years
06:21
And, I don't think in the next eight years. I think I think that at the point that the Democrats took control of the Senate
06:27
and the House,
06:29
you saw that you have,
06:31
If you could've you could've forecasted twelve percent
06:35
inflation if it was a if it was a split government, but I think that in a in a in a,
06:41
a non split government. There seems to be remarkable consensus that we should run deficits,
06:46
continue to keep interest rates low
06:49
and continue to stimulate the economy.
06:52
So what does that mean?
06:55
If you plug in a number, fifteen percent, it means that the risk free interest rate or the the risk free return is fifteen percent. It means you have to generate an excess of fifteen percent. On your money every year for the next four years in order to stay ahead of the rate of asset inflation.
07:12
A reasonable person would say the assets are going to inflate at that rate. That's
07:18
that's pretty much what they do. That means that
07:22
If your company is not growing, its cash flows, you know, at a twenty percent rate, then it's not gonna hold value as a stock. It means that if your bond is paying you an interest rate of less than fifteen percent,
07:35
you're destroying value in the bond.
07:37
If your rent yield is less than fifteen percent, your commercial real estate's destroying value.
07:43
And if you're holding cash, you're losing fifteen percent of it a year. That's that's the negative real yield.
07:49
So
07:50
once you actually,
07:52
embrace the idea of asset inflation, and asset inflation equals cost the capital equals the rate of the money supply expansion.
08:00
Once you have that rate, then you realize that there's a negative real real yield on every thing,
08:07
except for
08:09
Bitcoin,
08:10
for the most part, the negative real yield on gold is three percent. That's the rate at which we mine it or hypoticate it. The negative real yield on sovereign debt is about twelve percent, thirteen percent. The negative real yield on corporate debt is ten percent.
08:27
Every company that's got a growth rate of less than fifteen percent has got a negative real yield on it. So
08:34
You know, once you do that,
08:36
then you can then what you realize is
08:40
You can't really have a business strategy as a company
08:44
unless
08:45
you find a way to solve the treasury problem.
08:49
So
08:50
the big idea here is
08:52
you wanna fix any company,
08:55
sweep all the cash flows into Bitcoin,
08:58
convert the treasury into Bitcoin,
09:01
borrow against your future cash flows in dollars, convert that into Bitcoin,
09:07
finance all your fixed assets in dollars convert that into Bitcoin
09:11
and issue equity as much as you can now at the highest valuation you can now in dollars
09:17
and invest in Bitcoin.
09:19
Right? And and you might say
09:22
Why Bitcoin?
09:23
Well, because Bitcoin is the Apex property. It's the most scarce
09:28
monetary
09:29
asset in the universe.
09:30
You can't make any more of it.
09:33
It's encrypted money.
09:35
And and what that means is it's least likely to be impaired by
09:40
a property tax, an execution issue,
09:45
money printing,
09:47
dilution,
09:48
counterparty risk, and corruption.
09:52
So we have we have engineered
09:54
a superior asset, a thermodynamically
09:57
sound technically superior asset.
10:00
It's placed on a global digital monitoring network,
10:03
which is open, an open protocol
10:06
And the combination
10:07
of the the the Apex
10:11
asset on the open monetary system makes it the
10:16
The most disruptive technology in the world. When you were first starting microstrategy,
10:21
you were you were in the weeds, you were thinking, I have to make a product that solves a problem, and I I have to make money off of it. Right? Now
10:31
you've gone way up the hierarchy of Now we can do whatever we want. Now you could do whatever you want. At what point did you notice a shift? Like, oh my gosh. Like, this business is stable. It's working it's working pretty well.
10:44
Yep, it's quite predictable.
10:46
At what point did that shift happen? Because what you're talking about now is quite foreign to what
10:52
I think we look, we solved our problem when we actually embraced Bitcoin.
10:58
I I I I could say to you, oh, yeah. Well, when I had five hundred million in cash in the bank, I could. And then we were focused.
11:05
But the problem with that is that
11:07
If you have a bunch of cash generating zero interest, the cost capital goes twenty five percent,
11:13
then all of the public company investors forsake the company
11:17
And if the stock if the if the stock market forsakes the company, then mainstream media forsakes the company,
11:25
Right? Then the employees
11:26
become dejected because eventually you're gonna have Facebook, Amazon, Apple, or Google steal every one of your employees.
11:33
If you can't drive the stock up, right?
11:37
Nobody wants to invest in a company that makes a lot of money growing at five percent a year. I mean, it's it seems brutal to say that. It
11:47
it
11:48
but it wouldn't be true
11:50
if the cost capital was zero.
11:53
If we had a sound money policy in this country, then you could hold your head up high and say, I run this great restaurant.
12:01
And we made a lot of money last year. We're gonna make a lot of money this year, and our plan is to keep doing what we've been doing. And everybody pat you on the back and say, that's good. That's honorable.
12:10
But if if I tell you, I'm gonna devalue the the cash by twenty five percent a year or twenty percent a year. At some point,
12:19
you're driven into this
12:21
cycle where I have to either do a big acquisition to keep my revenues growing I I have to take extreme risk and do dilutive acquisitions
12:30
or I have to go borrow billions of dollars to buy the stock back to leverage up the cash flow per share. And if I don't do either of those things, the investors dump the stock and they dump the stock, the employees start feeling like, you know, why don't they go work someplace, cool and hot, and you're gonna get all your engineers stripped away by Facebook or or Amazon or something? So the truth is
12:55
when we actually fix the balance sheet, we fix the stock.
13:00
And we fix the, you know, at this point,
13:03
the company has five billion dollars, more than five billion dollars in assets,
13:08
If the if the cost of capital remains it, let let's say it goes up twenty percent. If if we print twenty percent more money next year, I can reasonably expect to generate a billion dollars of investment income,
13:20
which would be a, you know, twenty percent increase in Bitcoin. Right? But the truth is I can reasonably expect better than that.
13:28
If, the cost of capital is ten, I can reasonably expect five hundred million investment income.
13:33
Well,
13:35
all two thousand people doing a hundred thousand things right perfectly for the entire year, competing against Microsoft that has more money than god,
13:45
they can generate seventy five million a year.
13:48
Okay? So
13:49
so the truth is the company
13:52
its future became secure
13:54
when we actually converted the balance sheet to Bitcoin.
13:59
Because
14:00
now
14:01
we don't have to struggle.
14:03
Let me say it a different way. I don't think any company could be successful without a financial strategy in the year twenty twenty one.
14:11
Like, I wouldn't have said it
14:13
three, four years ago.
14:15
If you have a sound money macroeconomic
14:18
environment where the money supply is expanding at two or three percent a year, you can go out and make things and create things and market things and sell things and service things
14:28
and generate cash with that. And then,
14:31
and and that makes sense.
14:33
But if the money supply is expanding at twenty percent a year,
14:37
you need to own assets
14:40
because
14:41
because what's happening is
14:44
no one's going to invest in any project that doesn't generate more than the twenty percent hurdle rate.
14:50
And so what who can generate consistently
14:53
risk free twenty percent returns?
14:56
You have to be a monopoly.
14:58
Yeah. You have to have a digital monopoly or some kind of monopoly. So it becomes exponentially
15:04
harder to grow and what and so what happens next? All these other companies could get squeezed out of the ecosystem.
15:11
Right? They're get they get decalized
15:13
and rendered insolvent
15:15
by by the monetary policy.
15:17
So I I would say that,
15:20
you know, if I can get my my stock was a hundred and twenty dollars a share. What is it right now? Like,
15:29
I haven't checked in the market. Seven sixty eight.
15:33
Okay.
15:34
So
15:36
if I if I get my stock
15:39
up, then I can make my shareholders happy. I can change the narrative. I can recruit.
15:45
I can retain talent.
15:47
I can get the, you know, I can inspire the confidence of my customers.
15:52
I can I can drive
15:54
momentum?
15:56
And then we can do what we wanna do.
15:59
I guess it's it's similar to if you're a university
16:02
and you had no endowment,
16:05
you know, and
16:07
or university that has a billion dollar endowment or university that has a hundred billion dollar endowment,
16:12
you know, if you're a professor, which university do you wanna work for? If you're a student where you wanna go, you know, do you have do you have a shiny building coming or not? Right? At at the end of the day, right,
16:23
money is a measure of energy.
16:25
And so if you have monetary assets, you have energy. And if you have high energy, you can pursue your vision
16:31
you know, with integrity.
16:33
And what percentage of your time now are you spending on this on investing the income
16:40
versus
16:41
on the day to day of micro strategy of just the the
16:45
business as usual, making the products that making business intelligence products versus investing the the income?
16:53
I'm I'm the CEO, but we have a president, and the president and the company Fongli, and he actually has day to day operational
17:01
responsibility
17:02
for sales, marketing, and even technology development at this point. So I'm the chairman and the CEO.
17:08
I I oversee the company's strategy,
17:10
and I oversee the
17:13
I I oversee financial strategies. I oversee long term direction, and I and I oversee technology
17:20
strategy, but I'm not I'm not in the weeds in the day to day running the business. That's really left for the operating executive team.
17:34
I feel like I could rule the world. I know I could be what I want to
17:39
I put my all in it like a day's all going to road. Let's travel never looking back.
00:00 17:45